Recent U.S. economic data, including Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized alongside upward revisions to consumer spending and private domestic demand, alongside Fed median projections of 2.2% for the full year, anchor trader sentiment around the closely contested 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands at 35.5% and 33.5% implied probability. Resilient consumption and AI-related capital expenditures support the higher range, while elevated inflation from energy price pressures and geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks that could cap expansion near trend levels. Market-implied odds reflect this balance between solid underlying momentum and policy uncertainty ahead of upcoming data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
1.5–2.0% 35.5%
2.0–2.5% 34%
>2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 8.3%
$58,636 Vol.
$58,636 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
36%
2.0–2.5%
34%
>2.5%
18%
1.5–2.0% 35.5%
2.0–2.5% 34%
>2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 8.3%
$58,636 Vol.
$58,636 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$7,561 Vol.
5%
0.5–1.0%
$17,293 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$3,825 Vol.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$6,690 Vol.
36%
2.0–2.5%
$7,256 Vol.
34%
>2.5%
$16,011 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data, including Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized alongside upward revisions to consumer spending and private domestic demand, alongside Fed median projections of 2.2% for the full year, anchor trader sentiment around the closely contested 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands at 35.5% and 33.5% implied probability. Resilient consumption and AI-related capital expenditures support the higher range, while elevated inflation from energy price pressures and geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks that could cap expansion near trend levels. Market-implied odds reflect this balance between solid underlying momentum and policy uncertainty ahead of upcoming data releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$58,636End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data, including Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized alongside upward revisions to consumer spending and private domestic demand, alongside Fed median projections of 2.2% for the full year, anchor trader sentiment around the closely contested 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands at 35.5% and 33.5% implied probability. Resilient consumption and AI-related capital expenditures support the higher range, while elevated inflation from energy price pressures and geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks that could cap expansion near trend levels. Market-implied odds reflect this balance between solid underlying momentum and policy uncertainty ahead of upcoming data releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,636End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data, including Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized alongside upward revisions to consumer spending and private domestic demand, alongside Fed median projections of 2.2% for the full year, anchor trader sentiment around the closely contested 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands at 35.5% and 33.5% implied probability. Resilient consumption and AI-related capital expenditures support the higher range, while elevated inflation from energy price pressures and geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks that could cap expansion near trend levels. Market-implied odds reflect this balance between solid underlying momentum and policy uncertainty ahead of upcoming data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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