Alexandre Leduc of Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election as the clear frontrunner in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, where he captured over 50 percent of the vote in both 2018 and 2022. His incumbency, combined with the riding’s consistent left-leaning profile in Montreal, underpins the market’s 74 percent implied probability for a QS hold. The main challenger, Parti québécois candidate Maude Brossard-Sabourin, trails at 26 percent amid provincial polling that shows the PQ competitive overall but weaker in this urban district. Recent candidate nominations, finalized September 17, confirmed the field and produced no late surprises that would shift local dynamics. Broader campaign developments, including leaders’ debates and seat projections, have not altered the riding’s structural tilt toward the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlexandre Leduc 73%
Maude Brossard-Sabourin 26%
Béatrice Hodonou <1%
Janny Gaspard <1%
$10,214 Vol.
$10,214 Vol.
Alexandre Leduc
73%
Maude Brossard-Sabourin
26%
Béatrice Hodonou
<1%
Janny Gaspard
<1%
Elena Penta
<1%
Alexandre Leduc 73%
Maude Brossard-Sabourin 26%
Béatrice Hodonou <1%
Janny Gaspard <1%
$10,214 Vol.
$10,214 Vol.
Alexandre Leduc
73%
Maude Brossard-Sabourin
26%
Béatrice Hodonou
<1%
Janny Gaspard
<1%
Elena Penta
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Resolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Alexandre Leduc of Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election as the clear frontrunner in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, where he captured over 50 percent of the vote in both 2018 and 2022. His incumbency, combined with the riding’s consistent left-leaning profile in Montreal, underpins the market’s 74 percent implied probability for a QS hold. The main challenger, Parti québécois candidate Maude Brossard-Sabourin, trails at 26 percent amid provincial polling that shows the PQ competitive overall but weaker in this urban district. Recent candidate nominations, finalized September 17, confirmed the field and produced no late surprises that would shift local dynamics. Broader campaign developments, including leaders’ debates and seat projections, have not altered the riding’s structural tilt toward the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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