**Trader sentiment favors 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (46.5% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 17–19 (37.5%), reflecting the year’s pace of 11 events through late August against a long-term global average of roughly 15–18.** USGS data show typical variability from tectonic plate convergence, with 2026 featuring notable events including the M7.8 in the Philippines (June), M7.7 offshore Indonesia (August), and M7.5s in Tonga and Venezuela, plus aftershock sequences that can cluster activity. With four months remaining, the close spread between the top bins hinges on whether subduction zones produce average or elevated rates; USGS catalogs confirm no sustained acceleration beyond normal fluctuations, leaving resolution sensitive to new large ruptures or quiet periods ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16 46%
17–19 39%
11–13 10%
20+ 7.5%
$1,390,580 Vol.
$1,390,580 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11–13
10%
14–16
46%
17–19
39%
20+
8%
14–16 46%
17–19 39%
11–13 10%
20+ 7.5%
$1,390,580 Vol.
$1,390,580 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11–13
$416,985 Vol.
10%
14–16
$188,573 Vol.
46%
17–19
$212,883 Vol.
39%
20+
$68,377 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Trader sentiment favors 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (46.5% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 17–19 (37.5%), reflecting the year’s pace of 11 events through late August against a long-term global average of roughly 15–18.**
USGS data show typical variability from tectonic plate convergence, with 2026 featuring notable events including the M7.8 in the Philippines (June), M7.7 offshore Indonesia (August), and M7.5s in Tonga and Venezuela, plus aftershock sequences that can cluster activity. With four months remaining, the close spread between the top bins hinges on whether subduction zones produce average or elevated rates; USGS catalogs confirm no sustained acceleration beyond normal fluctuations, leaving resolution sensitive to new large ruptures or quiet periods ahead.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,390,580End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.**Trader sentiment favors 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (46.5% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 17–19 (37.5%), reflecting the year’s pace of 11 events through late August against a long-term global average of roughly 15–18.**
USGS data show typical variability from tectonic plate convergence, with 2026 featuring notable events including the M7.8 in the Philippines (June), M7.7 offshore Indonesia (August), and M7.5s in Tonga and Venezuela, plus aftershock sequences that can cluster activity. With four months remaining, the close spread between the top bins hinges on whether subduction zones produce average or elevated rates; USGS catalogs confirm no sustained acceleration beyond normal fluctuations, leaving resolution sensitive to new large ruptures or quiet periods ahead.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,390,580End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader sentiment favors 14–16 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes for 2026 (46.5% implied probability), narrowly ahead of 17–19 (37.5%), reflecting the year’s pace of 11 events through late August against a long-term global average of roughly 15–18.** USGS data show typical variability from tectonic plate convergence, with 2026 featuring notable events including the M7.8 in the Philippines (June), M7.7 offshore Indonesia (August), and M7.5s in Tonga and Venezuela, plus aftershock sequences that can cluster activity. With four months remaining, the close spread between the top bins hinges on whether subduction zones produce average or elevated rates; USGS catalogs confirm no sustained acceleration beyond normal fluctuations, leaving resolution sensitive to new large ruptures or quiet periods ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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