**Trader sentiment for the August 2026 U.S. tornado total reflects the preliminary count of 89 confirmed tornadoes through August 25, per Storm Prediction Center data, with only marginal severe-weather risk expected through month-end.** August climatology averages 81–94 tornadoes nationally, driven by the summertime jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while suppressing stronger low-level shear and instability typical of peak spring months. Recent SPC outlooks show only isolated supercell potential in the northern Plains, with weak model consensus on organized tornado threats and no significant tropical cyclone influences. These conditions support the market-implied edge for the 80–99 bin at 32.5% over 100–119 at 25.5%, as final days are unlikely to add enough events to shift the total substantially higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
100–119 34%
80-99 31%
170–199 4.3%
140-169 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
2%
40–59
3%
60-79
2%
80-99
31%
100–119
26%
120–139
2%
140-169
3%
170–199
4%
200+
1%
100–119 34%
80-99 31%
170–199 4.3%
140-169 3.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$330 Vol.
2%
40–59
$581 Vol.
3%
60-79
$2,113 Vol.
2%
80-99
$3,429 Vol.
31%
100–119
$890 Vol.
26%
120–139
$108 Vol.
2%
140-169
$296 Vol.
3%
170–199
$292 Vol.
4%
200+
$341 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for the August 2026 U.S. tornado total reflects the preliminary count of 89 confirmed tornadoes through August 25, per Storm Prediction Center data, with only marginal severe-weather risk expected through month-end.**
August climatology averages 81–94 tornadoes nationally, driven by the summertime jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while suppressing stronger low-level shear and instability typical of peak spring months. Recent SPC outlooks show only isolated supercell potential in the northern Plains, with weak model consensus on organized tornado threats and no significant tropical cyclone influences. These conditions support the market-implied edge for the 80–99 bin at 32.5% over 100–119 at 25.5%, as final days are unlikely to add enough events to shift the total substantially higher.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$8,380End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for the August 2026 U.S. tornado total reflects the preliminary count of 89 confirmed tornadoes through August 25, per Storm Prediction Center data, with only marginal severe-weather risk expected through month-end.**
August climatology averages 81–94 tornadoes nationally, driven by the summertime jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while suppressing stronger low-level shear and instability typical of peak spring months. Recent SPC outlooks show only isolated supercell potential in the northern Plains, with weak model consensus on organized tornado threats and no significant tropical cyclone influences. These conditions support the market-implied edge for the 80–99 bin at 32.5% over 100–119 at 25.5%, as final days are unlikely to add enough events to shift the total substantially higher.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$8,380End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the August 2026 U.S. tornado total reflects the preliminary count of 89 confirmed tornadoes through August 25, per Storm Prediction Center data, with only marginal severe-weather risk expected through month-end.** August climatology averages 81–94 tornadoes nationally, driven by the summertime jet stream favoring the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while suppressing stronger low-level shear and instability typical of peak spring months. Recent SPC outlooks show only isolated supercell potential in the northern Plains, with weak model consensus on organized tornado threats and no significant tropical cyclone influences. These conditions support the market-implied edge for the 80–99 bin at 32.5% over 100–119 at 25.5%, as final days are unlikely to add enough events to shift the total substantially higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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