Recent ISM Manufacturing PMI readings have shown sustained expansion, with the index at 55.6 in July 2026 before moderating to 54.6 in August amid slower new orders and persistent price pressures. Trader consensus for the September release, due October 1, centers on the 53.0–55.9 range as domestic demand and production remain supportive while tariffs, elevated input costs from the Middle East conflict, and supply-chain delays weigh on momentum. The closely matched probabilities across these bins reflect uncertainty over whether softening backlogs and mixed regional surveys, such as the New York Fed’s September Empire State reading, will pull the headline lower or allow the sector to hold near recent highs. Elevated prices-paid readings near 71 continue to signal input-cost risks that could influence sub-indexes and overall sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated53.0 to 53.9 22%
54.0 to 54.9 22%
55.0 to 55.9 20%
51.0 to 51.9 10%
$13,060 Vol.
$13,060 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
<1%
50.0 to 50.9
1%
51.0 to 51.9
10%
52.0 to 52.9
14%
53.0 to 53.9
22%
54.0 to 54.9
22%
55.0 to 55.9
20%
56.0 to 56.9
1%
57.0 to 57.9
8%
58.0+
2%
53.0 to 53.9 22%
54.0 to 54.9 22%
55.0 to 55.9 20%
51.0 to 51.9 10%
$13,060 Vol.
$13,060 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<50.0
$236 Vol.
<1%
50.0 to 50.9
$1,119 Vol.
1%
51.0 to 51.9
$760 Vol.
10%
52.0 to 52.9
$191 Vol.
14%
53.0 to 53.9
$1,387 Vol.
22%
54.0 to 54.9
$4,838 Vol.
22%
55.0 to 55.9
$426 Vol.
20%
56.0 to 56.9
$108 Vol.
1%
57.0 to 57.9
$3,760 Vol.
8%
58.0+
$235 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent ISM Manufacturing PMI readings have shown sustained expansion, with the index at 55.6 in July 2026 before moderating to 54.6 in August amid slower new orders and persistent price pressures. Trader consensus for the September release, due October 1, centers on the 53.0–55.9 range as domestic demand and production remain supportive while tariffs, elevated input costs from the Middle East conflict, and supply-chain delays weigh on momentum. The closely matched probabilities across these bins reflect uncertainty over whether softening backlogs and mixed regional surveys, such as the New York Fed’s September Empire State reading, will pull the headline lower or allow the sector to hold near recent highs. Elevated prices-paid readings near 71 continue to signal input-cost risks that could influence sub-indexes and overall sentiment.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$13,060End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent ISM Manufacturing PMI readings have shown sustained expansion, with the index at 55.6 in July 2026 before moderating to 54.6 in August amid slower new orders and persistent price pressures. Trader consensus for the September release, due October 1, centers on the 53.0–55.9 range as domestic demand and production remain supportive while tariffs, elevated input costs from the Middle East conflict, and supply-chain delays weigh on momentum. The closely matched probabilities across these bins reflect uncertainty over whether softening backlogs and mixed regional surveys, such as the New York Fed’s September Empire State reading, will pull the headline lower or allow the sector to hold near recent highs. Elevated prices-paid readings near 71 continue to signal input-cost risks that could influence sub-indexes and overall sentiment.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$13,060End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ISM Manufacturing PMI readings have shown sustained expansion, with the index at 55.6 in July 2026 before moderating to 54.6 in August amid slower new orders and persistent price pressures. Trader consensus for the September release, due October 1, centers on the 53.0–55.9 range as domestic demand and production remain supportive while tariffs, elevated input costs from the Middle East conflict, and supply-chain delays weigh on momentum. The closely matched probabilities across these bins reflect uncertainty over whether softening backlogs and mixed regional surveys, such as the New York Fed’s September Empire State reading, will pull the headline lower or allow the sector to hold near recent highs. Elevated prices-paid readings near 71 continue to signal input-cost risks that could influence sub-indexes and overall sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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