The primary driver of low implied probabilities for federal charges against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains the Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into headquarters renovation cost overruns (escalating from roughly $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion) and related congressional testimony, with the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general absent any findings of wrongdoing. A federal judge had already quashed subpoenas, citing essentially zero evidence of a crime and characterizing the effort as pretextual pressure tied to disputes over monetary policy and interest rate decisions. With Powell’s term as chair concluded and no subsequent referrals or filings reported, market-implied odds reflect the high evidentiary thresholds, prosecutorial discretion, and institutional protections surrounding central bank independence. Upcoming catalysts appear limited absent new congressional referrals or inspector general findings.