Persistent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over the Philippines are the main drivers behind the closely matched market-implied odds favoring minimum temperatures of 26–28°C in Manila on September 1. Official PAGASA guidance and numerical models indicate widespread monsoon rains and high humidity will suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows near or slightly above seasonal norms of 25–27°C. Uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of showers creates the tight clustering, with clearer breaks potentially allowing readings near 25°C while persistent overcast supports 27–28°C. An ongoing moderate El Niño provides broader context but has limited influence on this short-term diurnal range. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 1?
26°C 50%
25°C 49%
28°C 29%
27°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
22°C or below
4%
23°C
12%
24°C
19%
25°C
49%
26°C
50%
27°C
28%
28°C
29%
29°C
24%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
26°C 50%
25°C 49%
28°C 29%
27°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
12%
24°C
$0 Vol.
19%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
50%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
29%
29°C
$75 Vol.
24%
30°C
$0 Vol.
1%
31°C
$0 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over the Philippines are the main drivers behind the closely matched market-implied odds favoring minimum temperatures of 26–28°C in Manila on September 1. Official PAGASA guidance and numerical models indicate widespread monsoon rains and high humidity will suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows near or slightly above seasonal norms of 25–27°C. Uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of showers creates the tight clustering, with clearer breaks potentially allowing readings near 25°C while persistent overcast supports 27–28°C. An ongoing moderate El Niño provides broader context but has limited influence on this short-term diurnal range. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$75End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over the Philippines are the main drivers behind the closely matched market-implied odds favoring minimum temperatures of 26–28°C in Manila on September 1. Official PAGASA guidance and numerical models indicate widespread monsoon rains and high humidity will suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows near or slightly above seasonal norms of 25–27°C. Uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of showers creates the tight clustering, with clearer breaks potentially allowing readings near 25°C while persistent overcast supports 27–28°C. An ongoing moderate El Niño provides broader context but has limited influence on this short-term diurnal range. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$75End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity and associated cloud cover over the Philippines are the main drivers behind the closely matched market-implied odds favoring minimum temperatures of 26–28°C in Manila on September 1. Official PAGASA guidance and numerical models indicate widespread monsoon rains and high humidity will suppress nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows near or slightly above seasonal norms of 25–27°C. Uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of showers creates the tight clustering, with clearer breaks potentially allowing readings near 25°C while persistent overcast supports 27–28°C. An ongoing moderate El Niño provides broader context but has limited influence on this short-term diurnal range. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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