**Clear skies, elevated atmospheric pressure near 1024 hPa, and light easterly winds are driving overnight radiative cooling in Warsaw, positioning the overnight low in the 12–14°C range.** Multiple official and model forecasts (including GFS-based and Met Office guidance) show the daily minimum occurring just before sunrise around 05:37–06:00 local time, with temperatures bottoming near 12–14°C under dry conditions and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors efficient heat loss from the surface, consistent with late-August climatology where average lows sit near 15°C but can dip lower during calm, high-pressure periods without frontal activity or moisture. Recent observations confirm stable high pressure and clear skies persisting into August 27, with no significant model shifts or incoming disturbances noted in the past 24–48 hours that would alter the cooling trajectory. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns with this consensus forecast, heavily favoring 13°C (66%) while assigning meaningful probability to 11–12°C outcomes amid typical short-term model variability in minimum temperature predictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 27?
12°C 3%
10°C <1%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
47%
12°C
27%
13°C
50%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 3%
10°C <1%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
7°C or below
$155 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$242 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$101 Vol.
1%
11°C
$66 Vol.
47%
12°C
$66 Vol.
27%
13°C
$135 Vol.
50%
14°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$84 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$73 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, elevated atmospheric pressure near 1024 hPa, and light easterly winds are driving overnight radiative cooling in Warsaw, positioning the overnight low in the 12–14°C range.** Multiple official and model forecasts (including GFS-based and Met Office guidance) show the daily minimum occurring just before sunrise around 05:37–06:00 local time, with temperatures bottoming near 12–14°C under dry conditions and minimal cloud cover.
This setup favors efficient heat loss from the surface, consistent with late-August climatology where average lows sit near 15°C but can dip lower during calm, high-pressure periods without frontal activity or moisture. Recent observations confirm stable high pressure and clear skies persisting into August 27, with no significant model shifts or incoming disturbances noted in the past 24–48 hours that would alter the cooling trajectory.
Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns with this consensus forecast, heavily favoring 13°C (66%) while assigning meaningful probability to 11–12°C outcomes amid typical short-term model variability in minimum temperature predictions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$851End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, elevated atmospheric pressure near 1024 hPa, and light easterly winds are driving overnight radiative cooling in Warsaw, positioning the overnight low in the 12–14°C range.** Multiple official and model forecasts (including GFS-based and Met Office guidance) show the daily minimum occurring just before sunrise around 05:37–06:00 local time, with temperatures bottoming near 12–14°C under dry conditions and minimal cloud cover.
This setup favors efficient heat loss from the surface, consistent with late-August climatology where average lows sit near 15°C but can dip lower during calm, high-pressure periods without frontal activity or moisture. Recent observations confirm stable high pressure and clear skies persisting into August 27, with no significant model shifts or incoming disturbances noted in the past 24–48 hours that would alter the cooling trajectory.
Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns with this consensus forecast, heavily favoring 13°C (66%) while assigning meaningful probability to 11–12°C outcomes amid typical short-term model variability in minimum temperature predictions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$851End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies, elevated atmospheric pressure near 1024 hPa, and light easterly winds are driving overnight radiative cooling in Warsaw, positioning the overnight low in the 12–14°C range.** Multiple official and model forecasts (including GFS-based and Met Office guidance) show the daily minimum occurring just before sunrise around 05:37–06:00 local time, with temperatures bottoming near 12–14°C under dry conditions and minimal cloud cover. This setup favors efficient heat loss from the surface, consistent with late-August climatology where average lows sit near 15°C but can dip lower during calm, high-pressure periods without frontal activity or moisture. Recent observations confirm stable high pressure and clear skies persisting into August 27, with no significant model shifts or incoming disturbances noted in the past 24–48 hours that would alter the cooling trajectory. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns with this consensus forecast, heavily favoring 13°C (66%) while assigning meaningful probability to 11–12°C outcomes amid typical short-term model variability in minimum temperature predictions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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