Ed Markey’s commanding position in the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary stems from his consolidation of progressive and liberal voters, backed by endorsements from Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders along with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, plus his long record on climate and healthcare policy. Recent University of New Hampshire polling in late August showed the incumbent pulling ahead by 35 points or more ahead of the September 1 vote, after earlier surveys had been closer. Moulton’s emphasis on generational change and criticism of Markey’s age has not eroded that base sufficiently, while minor candidates Ayanna Pressley and Alexander Rikleen have withdrawn or declined to run and endorsed the senator. A Moulton upset would require unusually strong moderate turnout or significant polling error in the final days, though current evidence points to limited realistic pathways for such a shift.