Robust consumer spending and AI-fueled business investment continue to anchor U.S. economic expansion, with second-quarter 2026 GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and private domestic final purchases revised higher to 4.2%. Consensus forecasts from the CBO, S&P Global, and Capital Economics project full-year real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2%, reflecting resilient household outlays, strong corporate profits, and capital expenditures that have offset sticky inflation near 3.7% PCE and elevated energy prices. This data-driven momentum, coupled with a stable labor market, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against contraction. Tail risks include sharper Middle East escalation driving sustained oil shocks, abrupt AI capex moderation, or aggressive tariff tightening that could compress trade and demand more than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
3% chance
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
3% chance
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consumer spending and AI-fueled business investment continue to anchor U.S. economic expansion, with second-quarter 2026 GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and private domestic final purchases revised higher to 4.2%. Consensus forecasts from the CBO, S&P Global, and Capital Economics project full-year real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2%, reflecting resilient household outlays, strong corporate profits, and capital expenditures that have offset sticky inflation near 3.7% PCE and elevated energy prices. This data-driven momentum, coupled with a stable labor market, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against contraction. Tail risks include sharper Middle East escalation driving sustained oil shocks, abrupt AI capex moderation, or aggressive tariff tightening that could compress trade and demand more than anticipated.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,761End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust consumer spending and AI-fueled business investment continue to anchor U.S. economic expansion, with second-quarter 2026 GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and private domestic final purchases revised higher to 4.2%. Consensus forecasts from the CBO, S&P Global, and Capital Economics project full-year real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2%, reflecting resilient household outlays, strong corporate profits, and capital expenditures that have offset sticky inflation near 3.7% PCE and elevated energy prices. This data-driven momentum, coupled with a stable labor market, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against contraction. Tail risks include sharper Middle East escalation driving sustained oil shocks, abrupt AI capex moderation, or aggressive tariff tightening that could compress trade and demand more than anticipated.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,761End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust consumer spending and AI-fueled business investment continue to anchor U.S. economic expansion, with second-quarter 2026 GDP advancing 1.5% annualized and private domestic final purchases revised higher to 4.2%. Consensus forecasts from the CBO, S&P Global, and Capital Economics project full-year real GDP growth of 2.0–2.2%, reflecting resilient household outlays, strong corporate profits, and capital expenditures that have offset sticky inflation near 3.7% PCE and elevated energy prices. This data-driven momentum, coupled with a stable labor market, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against contraction. Tail risks include sharper Middle East escalation driving sustained oil shocks, abrupt AI capex moderation, or aggressive tariff tightening that could compress trade and demand more than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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