**Trader consensus for >6 inches of precipitation in NYC during August 2026 stands at 98.7% implied probability, driven by verified Central Park observations showing roughly 8.5 inches through August 28–29.** This total already exceeds the monthly normal of about 4.2 inches by more than 4 inches, with 12+ days recording measurable rain and several intense events—including 2.87 inches on August 20 and 1.93 inches on August 3—pushing accumulation well into the upper range. An active moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, combined with repeated convective storms, produced this surplus, consistent with National Weather Service climatological summaries. With only one or two days remaining in the month and forecasts indicating limited additional rainfall (generally under 0.5 inches expected), the final total is projected to finish near or slightly above current levels. The primary risk to the >6-inch outcome would require an unprecedented reversal, such as negative precipitation or complete data revision, neither of which is plausible given official measurements and the proximity to month-end. Lower-probability bins (all under 0.5%) reflect this near-certainty in the final tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in NYC in August?
Precipitation in NYC in August?
>6" 98.8%
3-4" <1%
<2" <1%
4-5" <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<2"
<1%
2-3"
<1%
3-4"
<1%
4-5"
<1%
5-6"
<1%
>6"
99%
>6" 98.8%
3-4" <1%
<2" <1%
4-5" <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<2"
$1,267 Vol.
<1%
2-3"
$832 Vol.
<1%
3-4"
$774 Vol.
<1%
4-5"
$580 Vol.
<1%
5-6"
$500 Vol.
<1%
>6"
$1,226 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus for >6 inches of precipitation in NYC during August 2026 stands at 98.7% implied probability, driven by verified Central Park observations showing roughly 8.5 inches through August 28–29.**
This total already exceeds the monthly normal of about 4.2 inches by more than 4 inches, with 12+ days recording measurable rain and several intense events—including 2.87 inches on August 20 and 1.93 inches on August 3—pushing accumulation well into the upper range. An active moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, combined with repeated convective storms, produced this surplus, consistent with National Weather Service climatological summaries.
With only one or two days remaining in the month and forecasts indicating limited additional rainfall (generally under 0.5 inches expected), the final total is projected to finish near or slightly above current levels. The primary risk to the >6-inch outcome would require an unprecedented reversal, such as negative precipitation or complete data revision, neither of which is plausible given official measurements and the proximity to month-end. Lower-probability bins (all under 0.5%) reflect this near-certainty in the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$5,179End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus for >6 inches of precipitation in NYC during August 2026 stands at 98.7% implied probability, driven by verified Central Park observations showing roughly 8.5 inches through August 28–29.**
This total already exceeds the monthly normal of about 4.2 inches by more than 4 inches, with 12+ days recording measurable rain and several intense events—including 2.87 inches on August 20 and 1.93 inches on August 3—pushing accumulation well into the upper range. An active moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, combined with repeated convective storms, produced this surplus, consistent with National Weather Service climatological summaries.
With only one or two days remaining in the month and forecasts indicating limited additional rainfall (generally under 0.5 inches expected), the final total is projected to finish near or slightly above current levels. The primary risk to the >6-inch outcome would require an unprecedented reversal, such as negative precipitation or complete data revision, neither of which is plausible given official measurements and the proximity to month-end. Lower-probability bins (all under 0.5%) reflect this near-certainty in the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,179End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus for >6 inches of precipitation in NYC during August 2026 stands at 98.7% implied probability, driven by verified Central Park observations showing roughly 8.5 inches through August 28–29.** This total already exceeds the monthly normal of about 4.2 inches by more than 4 inches, with 12+ days recording measurable rain and several intense events—including 2.87 inches on August 20 and 1.93 inches on August 3—pushing accumulation well into the upper range. An active moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, combined with repeated convective storms, produced this surplus, consistent with National Weather Service climatological summaries. With only one or two days remaining in the month and forecasts indicating limited additional rainfall (generally under 0.5 inches expected), the final total is projected to finish near or slightly above current levels. The primary risk to the >6-inch outcome would require an unprecedented reversal, such as negative precipitation or complete data revision, neither of which is plausible given official measurements and the proximity to month-end. Lower-probability bins (all under 0.5%) reflect this near-certainty in the final tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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