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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

icon for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change 74%

25 bps increase 25.7%

25 bps decrease 1.0%

50+ bps decrease <1%

Polymarket

$18,962 Vol.

No change 74%

25 bps increase 25.7%

25 bps decrease 1.0%

50+ bps decrease <1%

Polymarket

$18,962 Vol.

50+ bps decrease

$895 Vol.

1%

25 bps decrease

$877 Vol.

1%

No change

$14,656 Vol.

74%

25 bps increase

$1,948 Vol.

26%

50+ bps increase

$586 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.

If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$18,962
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.

If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$18,962
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No change" at 74%, followed by "25 bps increase" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November" has generated $19K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November" is "No change" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "25 bps increase" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.