Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with goods imports falling 1.8% and the services surplus expanding. This follows 2025 front-loading ahead of new Section 301 tariffs (effective rate near 11% on imports from about 60 partners), which have reduced reliance on Chinese goods and contributed to a first-half 2026 cumulative gap of $371 billion, down sharply from the prior year. Offsetting factors include resilient AI-related capital goods imports and a stronger dollar supporting consumer demand, while commodity export gains have begun to fade. Trader consensus around an $800–900 billion annual total for 2026 reflects these normalizing flows amid ongoing policy uncertainty and upcoming July–September releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
30%
800–900B
43%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
4%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
30%
800–900B
$1,519 Vol.
43%
900B–1T
$1,397 Vol.
14%
1T–1.1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with goods imports falling 1.8% and the services surplus expanding. This follows 2025 front-loading ahead of new Section 301 tariffs (effective rate near 11% on imports from about 60 partners), which have reduced reliance on Chinese goods and contributed to a first-half 2026 cumulative gap of $371 billion, down sharply from the prior year. Offsetting factors include resilient AI-related capital goods imports and a stronger dollar supporting consumer demand, while commodity export gains have begun to fade. Trader consensus around an $800–900 billion annual total for 2026 reflects these normalizing flows amid ongoing policy uncertainty and upcoming July–September releases.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with goods imports falling 1.8% and the services surplus expanding. This follows 2025 front-loading ahead of new Section 301 tariffs (effective rate near 11% on imports from about 60 partners), which have reduced reliance on Chinese goods and contributed to a first-half 2026 cumulative gap of $371 billion, down sharply from the prior year. Offsetting factors include resilient AI-related capital goods imports and a stronger dollar supporting consumer demand, while commodity export gains have begun to fade. Trader consensus around an $800–900 billion annual total for 2026 reflects these normalizing flows amid ongoing policy uncertainty and upcoming July–September releases.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data show the deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with goods imports falling 1.8% and the services surplus expanding. This follows 2025 front-loading ahead of new Section 301 tariffs (effective rate near 11% on imports from about 60 partners), which have reduced reliance on Chinese goods and contributed to a first-half 2026 cumulative gap of $371 billion, down sharply from the prior year. Offsetting factors include resilient AI-related capital goods imports and a stronger dollar supporting consumer demand, while commodity export gains have begun to fade. Trader consensus around an $800–900 billion annual total for 2026 reflects these normalizing flows amid ongoing policy uncertainty and upcoming July–September releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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