Recent monthly U.S. goods trade deficits, including a July 2026 reading of $118.8 billion—the widest in 16 months—have anchored trader sentiment around an annual goods-and-services shortfall of $700–900 billion. Surging capital goods imports tied to AI infrastructure spending have outpaced export declines, while tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading has tempered import growth. Services surpluses near $29 billion monthly continue to offset part of the goods gap, consistent with year-to-date cumulative totals near $371 billion through June. Market-implied odds for the 800–900 billion bracket at 43 percent and 700–800 billion at 32 percent reflect these dynamics alongside subdued global demand and dollar movements. Further monthly releases through year-end will shape resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,039 Vol.
$24,039 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
30%
800–900B
43%
900B–1T
12%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
5%
$24,039 Vol.
$24,039 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
30%
800–900B
$1,529 Vol.
43%
900B–1T
$1,407 Vol.
12%
1T–1.1T
$1,468 Vol.
4%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods trade deficits, including a July 2026 reading of $118.8 billion—the widest in 16 months—have anchored trader sentiment around an annual goods-and-services shortfall of $700–900 billion. Surging capital goods imports tied to AI infrastructure spending have outpaced export declines, while tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading has tempered import growth. Services surpluses near $29 billion monthly continue to offset part of the goods gap, consistent with year-to-date cumulative totals near $371 billion through June. Market-implied odds for the 800–900 billion bracket at 43 percent and 700–800 billion at 32 percent reflect these dynamics alongside subdued global demand and dollar movements. Further monthly releases through year-end will shape resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,039End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods trade deficits, including a July 2026 reading of $118.8 billion—the widest in 16 months—have anchored trader sentiment around an annual goods-and-services shortfall of $700–900 billion. Surging capital goods imports tied to AI infrastructure spending have outpaced export declines, while tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading has tempered import growth. Services surpluses near $29 billion monthly continue to offset part of the goods gap, consistent with year-to-date cumulative totals near $371 billion through June. Market-implied odds for the 800–900 billion bracket at 43 percent and 700–800 billion at 32 percent reflect these dynamics alongside subdued global demand and dollar movements. Further monthly releases through year-end will shape resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,039End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods trade deficits, including a July 2026 reading of $118.8 billion—the widest in 16 months—have anchored trader sentiment around an annual goods-and-services shortfall of $700–900 billion. Surging capital goods imports tied to AI infrastructure spending have outpaced export declines, while tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading has tempered import growth. Services surpluses near $29 billion monthly continue to offset part of the goods gap, consistent with year-to-date cumulative totals near $371 billion through June. Market-implied odds for the 800–900 billion bracket at 43 percent and 700–800 billion at 32 percent reflect these dynamics alongside subdued global demand and dollar movements. Further monthly releases through year-end will shape resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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