**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification throughout the 2026 season, keeping all four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and the brief Tropical Storm Dolly (August 27–28)—below hurricane threshold.** As of the National Hurricane Center’s August 29 outlook, no systems are expected to develop into hurricanes before month-end, with formation chances near 0% in the next 48 hours and only 10% over seven days for monitored disturbances. High vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and unfavorable steering patterns tied to the Pacific warming have limited organization, producing a season-to-date ACE of just 3.6—far below the 1991–2020 average. NOAA and NHC guidance indicate these hostile conditions are likely to persist into early September, supporting the market’s overwhelming consensus against an August hurricane. A sudden, rapid intensification of Dolly’s remnants or an unforecasted late-month wave would be required to alter the outcome, though current model consensus and observational data make this highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026 97.4%
August 27 to August 31, 2026 2.4%
August 22 to August 26, 2026 <1%
$16,173 Vol.
$16,173 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 22 to August 26, 2026
<1%
August 27 to August 31, 2026
2%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
97%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026 97.4%
August 27 to August 31, 2026 2.4%
August 22 to August 26, 2026 <1%
$16,173 Vol.
$16,173 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 22 to August 26, 2026
$1,339 Vol.
<1%
August 27 to August 31, 2026
$3,043 Vol.
2%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026
$10,980 Vol.
97%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification throughout the 2026 season, keeping all four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and the brief Tropical Storm Dolly (August 27–28)—below hurricane threshold.** As of the National Hurricane Center’s August 29 outlook, no systems are expected to develop into hurricanes before month-end, with formation chances near 0% in the next 48 hours and only 10% over seven days for monitored disturbances. High vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and unfavorable steering patterns tied to the Pacific warming have limited organization, producing a season-to-date ACE of just 3.6—far below the 1991–2020 average. NOAA and NHC guidance indicate these hostile conditions are likely to persist into early September, supporting the market’s overwhelming consensus against an August hurricane. A sudden, rapid intensification of Dolly’s remnants or an unforecasted late-month wave would be required to alter the outcome, though current model consensus and observational data make this highly improbable.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Volume
$16,173End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification throughout the 2026 season, keeping all four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and the brief Tropical Storm Dolly (August 27–28)—below hurricane threshold.** As of the National Hurricane Center’s August 29 outlook, no systems are expected to develop into hurricanes before month-end, with formation chances near 0% in the next 48 hours and only 10% over seven days for monitored disturbances. High vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and unfavorable steering patterns tied to the Pacific warming have limited organization, producing a season-to-date ACE of just 3.6—far below the 1991–2020 average. NOAA and NHC guidance indicate these hostile conditions are likely to persist into early September, supporting the market’s overwhelming consensus against an August hurricane. A sudden, rapid intensification of Dolly’s remnants or an unforecasted late-month wave would be required to alter the outcome, though current model consensus and observational data make this highly improbable.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Volume
$16,173End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification throughout the 2026 season, keeping all four named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and the brief Tropical Storm Dolly (August 27–28)—below hurricane threshold.** As of the National Hurricane Center’s August 29 outlook, no systems are expected to develop into hurricanes before month-end, with formation chances near 0% in the next 48 hours and only 10% over seven days for monitored disturbances. High vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and unfavorable steering patterns tied to the Pacific warming have limited organization, producing a season-to-date ACE of just 3.6—far below the 1991–2020 average. NOAA and NHC guidance indicate these hostile conditions are likely to persist into early September, supporting the market’s overwhelming consensus against an August hurricane. A sudden, rapid intensification of Dolly’s remnants or an unforecasted late-month wave would be required to alter the outcome, though current model consensus and observational data make this highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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