Ongoing European drought conditions, limited Alpine snowmelt, and below-average precipitation through mid-August 2026 have kept Rhine flows near multi-decade lows at critical gauges such as Kaub, where levels recently hovered around 66 cm—well below the 77 cm navigation threshold. Weekend rainfall in southern Germany has produced modest gains and allowed some barge-rate relief, yet readings remain in the low-water range and full recovery depends on sustained upstream inflows. Weekly and monthly precipitation outlooks, evaporation rates, and typical autumn hydrology patterns create high uncertainty around the exact timing, holding the leading resolution windows (late August through October) within a few percentage points of one another. Additional heavy rain events or an extended dry spell could shift probabilities quickly by accelerating or delaying the return above the reference level.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
September 1 - 14, 2026 25%
Before September 1, 2026 21.8%
September 15 - 30, 2026 21.3%
October 1 - 31, 2026 11.7%
$77,088 Vol.
$77,088 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
Before September 1, 2026
22%
September 1 - 14, 2026
25%
September 15 - 30, 2026
21%
October 1 - 31, 2026
20%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
10%
September 1 - 14, 2026 25%
Before September 1, 2026 21.8%
September 15 - 30, 2026 21.3%
October 1 - 31, 2026 11.7%
$77,088 Vol.
$77,088 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
Before September 1, 2026
$21,192 Vol.
22%
September 1 - 14, 2026
$20,270 Vol.
25%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$9,203 Vol.
21%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$13,938 Vol.
20%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
$12,485 Vol.
10%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing European drought conditions, limited Alpine snowmelt, and below-average precipitation through mid-August 2026 have kept Rhine flows near multi-decade lows at critical gauges such as Kaub, where levels recently hovered around 66 cm—well below the 77 cm navigation threshold. Weekend rainfall in southern Germany has produced modest gains and allowed some barge-rate relief, yet readings remain in the low-water range and full recovery depends on sustained upstream inflows. Weekly and monthly precipitation outlooks, evaporation rates, and typical autumn hydrology patterns create high uncertainty around the exact timing, holding the leading resolution windows (late August through October) within a few percentage points of one another. Additional heavy rain events or an extended dry spell could shift probabilities quickly by accelerating or delaying the return above the reference level.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$77,088End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing European drought conditions, limited Alpine snowmelt, and below-average precipitation through mid-August 2026 have kept Rhine flows near multi-decade lows at critical gauges such as Kaub, where levels recently hovered around 66 cm—well below the 77 cm navigation threshold. Weekend rainfall in southern Germany has produced modest gains and allowed some barge-rate relief, yet readings remain in the low-water range and full recovery depends on sustained upstream inflows. Weekly and monthly precipitation outlooks, evaporation rates, and typical autumn hydrology patterns create high uncertainty around the exact timing, holding the leading resolution windows (late August through October) within a few percentage points of one another. Additional heavy rain events or an extended dry spell could shift probabilities quickly by accelerating or delaying the return above the reference level.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$77,088End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing European drought conditions, limited Alpine snowmelt, and below-average precipitation through mid-August 2026 have kept Rhine flows near multi-decade lows at critical gauges such as Kaub, where levels recently hovered around 66 cm—well below the 77 cm navigation threshold. Weekend rainfall in southern Germany has produced modest gains and allowed some barge-rate relief, yet readings remain in the low-water range and full recovery depends on sustained upstream inflows. Weekly and monthly precipitation outlooks, evaporation rates, and typical autumn hydrology patterns create high uncertainty around the exact timing, holding the leading resolution windows (late August through October) within a few percentage points of one another. Additional heavy rain events or an extended dry spell could shift probabilities quickly by accelerating or delaying the return above the reference level.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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