The Baja California gubernatorial race for June 2027 remains fluid more than nine months before voting, with Morena holding a consistent 40-plus percent party preference lead in recent surveys while internal nomination contests drive volatility among frontrunners. Ismael Burgueño Ruiz and Julieta Ramírez Padilla top Morena preference polls, though leads have shifted between them amid factional tensions linked to the current governor and her predecessor. Opposition parties trail significantly, leaving their nominees with narrower paths. The market's compressed probabilities reflect this pre-candidate selection stage, where party registration deadlines, internal surveys, and any resolution of ongoing Morena disputes could quickly widen gaps or elevate alternatives before the general election campaign begins.