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Politics·Mexico

Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner

icon for Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner

Milena Quiroga Romero 45%

Manuel Cota Cárdenas 21.3%

Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias 15%

Christian Agúndez Gómez 10%

Polymarket

$10,079 Vol.

Milena Quiroga Romero 45%

Manuel Cota Cárdenas 21.3%

Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias 15%

Christian Agúndez Gómez 10%

Polymarket

$10,079 Vol.

icon for Milena Quiroga Romero

Milena Quiroga Romero

$493 Vol.

45%

icon for Manuel Cota Cárdenas

Manuel Cota Cárdenas

$2,293 Vol.

21%

icon for Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias

Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias

$379 Vol.

15%

icon for Christian Agúndez Gómez

Christian Agúndez Gómez

$4,738 Vol.

10%

icon for Edith Aguilar Villavicencio

Edith Aguilar Villavicencio

$235 Vol.

6%

icon for Antonio Manríquez

Antonio Manríquez

$176 Vol.

4%

icon for Roxana Higuera

Roxana Higuera

$176 Vol.

4%

icon for Diana Von Borstel Luna

Diana Von Borstel Luna

$176 Vol.

3%

icon for Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón

Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón

$156 Vol.

3%

icon for Ricardo Barroso Agramont

Ricardo Barroso Agramont

$196 Vol.

2%

icon for José Saúl González Núñez

José Saúl González Núñez

$206 Vol.

2%

icon for José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar

José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar

$176 Vol.

8%

icon for Susana Zataraín García

Susana Zataraín García

$157 Vol.

1%

icon for Fabricio del Castillo

Fabricio del Castillo

$176 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado

Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado

$156 Vol.

6%

icon for Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros

Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros

$187 Vol.

<1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Milena Quiroga Romero leads trader consensus at 44.5% as the early frontrunner for the Morena nomination ahead of the June 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial election, with Manuel Cota Cárdenas at 21.3% and Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias (PAN) at 14.5%. Recent July–August 2026 surveys show Quiroga holding double-digit advantages in Morena internal preferences, supported by her record as La Paz mayor on water infrastructure, security, and digital services, while party identification favors Morena. Multiple viable contenders across parties, high undecided shares near 40%, and unresolved nomination timelines keep probabilities clustered, with separation likely after primary resolutions, opposition coordination, or shifts on key state issues such as tourism and resource management.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$10,079
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.Milena Quiroga Romero leads trader consensus at 44.5% as the early frontrunner for the Morena nomination ahead of the June 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial election, with Manuel Cota Cárdenas at 21.3% and Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias (PAN) at 14.5%. Recent July–August 2026 surveys show Quiroga holding double-digit advantages in Morena internal preferences, supported by her record as La Paz mayor on water infrastructure, security, and digital services, while party identification favors Morena. Multiple viable contenders across parties, high undecided shares near 40%, and unresolved nomination timelines keep probabilities clustered, with separation likely after primary resolutions, opposition coordination, or shifts on key state issues such as tourism and resource management.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$10,079
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Milena Quiroga Romero" at 45%, followed by "Manuel Cota Cárdenas" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" has generated $10.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" is "Milena Quiroga Romero" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Manuel Cota Cárdenas" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.