Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association, and billionaire-backed committees has shaped trader expectations that the 5% one-time wealth tax measure will fail on the November 2026 ballot. Opponents have committed over $90 million to defeat the initiative and qualify competing measures that would nullify it if both pass, while studies such as the August 2026 Hoover Institution analysis project that billionaire departures before the January 1, 2026 residency cutoff have already eroded the tax base and could produce a net fiscal loss through reduced future income tax collections. Early polling showed slim majority support that has since faced sustained counter-messaging on economic risks and residency flight. These dynamics have produced the current 71.5% implied probability against passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated29% chance
$3,686,747 Vol.
$3,686,747 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
29% chance
$3,686,747 Vol.
$3,686,747 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association, and billionaire-backed committees has shaped trader expectations that the 5% one-time wealth tax measure will fail on the November 2026 ballot. Opponents have committed over $90 million to defeat the initiative and qualify competing measures that would nullify it if both pass, while studies such as the August 2026 Hoover Institution analysis project that billionaire departures before the January 1, 2026 residency cutoff have already eroded the tax base and could produce a net fiscal loss through reduced future income tax collections. Early polling showed slim majority support that has since faced sustained counter-messaging on economic risks and residency flight. These dynamics have produced the current 71.5% implied probability against passage.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,686,747End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association, and billionaire-backed committees has shaped trader expectations that the 5% one-time wealth tax measure will fail on the November 2026 ballot. Opponents have committed over $90 million to defeat the initiative and qualify competing measures that would nullify it if both pass, while studies such as the August 2026 Hoover Institution analysis project that billionaire departures before the January 1, 2026 residency cutoff have already eroded the tax base and could produce a net fiscal loss through reduced future income tax collections. Early polling showed slim majority support that has since faced sustained counter-messaging on economic risks and residency flight. These dynamics have produced the current 71.5% implied probability against passage.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,686,747End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, major Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association, and billionaire-backed committees has shaped trader expectations that the 5% one-time wealth tax measure will fail on the November 2026 ballot. Opponents have committed over $90 million to defeat the initiative and qualify competing measures that would nullify it if both pass, while studies such as the August 2026 Hoover Institution analysis project that billionaire departures before the January 1, 2026 residency cutoff have already eroded the tax base and could produce a net fiscal loss through reduced future income tax collections. Early polling showed slim majority support that has since faced sustained counter-messaging on economic risks and residency flight. These dynamics have produced the current 71.5% implied probability against passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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