**Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for first place in the Federal District first-round vote at 77%, reflecting strong local polling trends and the region’s established right-leaning electorate ahead of the October 4 election.** Recent Datafolha polling in the DF (August 18–21) placed him at 39% to Lula’s 31%, with Ronaldo Caiado at 10% and all others in low single digits. Earlier surveys, including those from Real Time Big Data, showed similar patterns of Flávio holding or extending leads in the capital region. While a contemporaneous Quaest DF poll (August 21–24) showed Lula narrowly ahead at 28% to 26%, the gap remained within margins of error and did not reverse the broader local preference. The Federal District historically delivered large margins for Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022, creating a structural advantage for his son Flávio (PL) that national surveys do not fully capture. Lula (PT) trails in DF-specific data despite leading or tying nationally, consistent with higher rejection rates and weaker performance in urban centers with stronger opposition sentiment. Minor candidates such as Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury register low single digits locally and lack momentum to overtake the top two. Free electoral broadcasts began August 28 and the first round is October 4; any late shifts in DF turnout or coalition dynamics could still influence the final ordering, but current trader pricing aligns with repeated local surveys favoring Flávio for the top spot.