Iliana Iotova, Bulgaria’s incumbent president since assuming office in January 2026 following Rumen Radev’s resignation, leads the October 25 presidential election market at 70.5% implied probability after declaring her independent candidacy via an initiative committee. She has secured backing from Progressive Bulgaria, BSP–OL, and allied groups, building on her prior vice-presidential record and July polling that placed her first with roughly 40% support. Andrey Gyurov, who served as caretaker prime minister ahead of the April 2026 parliamentary vote won decisively by Radev’s coalition, trails at 27% after recent endorsements from opposition parties PP and DB. Lower-probability names such as Kostadin Kostadinov reflect limited announced opposition momentum and the compressed candidate field weeks before the campaign opens. The two-round system and Iotova’s cross-party institutional position underpin trader consensus on the frontrunner.