José Maria Neves, the incumbent PAICV president, leads the market at 77.5% implied probability due to his party's absolute majority in the May 2026 parliamentary elections and his strong institutional position ahead of the November 15 first-round vote. The two-round system and eligibility rules favor established candidates who can secure broad signatures and voter support across domestic and diaspora constituencies. Recent actions, including his rejection of a proposed attorney general nominee and pauses on ambassador appointments, underscore ongoing checks and balances without disrupting his re-election trajectory. Minor candidates such as Janine Lélis, Joana Rosa, Casimiro de Pina, and others trail at low single-digit or nominal levels, reflecting limited declared opposition momentum and historical patterns of incumbent advantage in Cape Verde's stable two-party system. Trader consensus prices in these structural factors while leaving room for late developments before candidate registration closes.