Monique Taylor leads trader consensus in the September 3 Ontario by-election for Hamilton East—Stoney Creek at 62 percent, reflecting her profile as a former local MPP with established name recognition and a recent EKOS poll showing the NDP at 38 percent against 34 percent for Progressive Conservative Jeff Beattie. Beattie, a sitting city councillor backed by the governing PCs, trails at 35 percent amid voter focus on urban boundary expansion and farmland protection, issues that have drawn opposition criticism of provincial policy. Minor-party candidates including Liberal Heino Doessing, Green Pascale Marchand, and others register minimal implied probabilities under 6 percent, consistent with historical by-election patterns where major-party contenders dominate in the riding. Advance voting and a late-August candidates debate have kept attention on these local dynamics ahead of election day.