Trader consensus has locked in 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in São Paulo on August 28, driven by official maximum readings from INMET surface stations that aligned with model outputs and regional observations. Persistent high-pressure ridging, reduced cloud cover, and downslope warming from the Serra do Mar supported daytime heating to this level without exceeding it, consistent with late-winter climatology for the São Paulo metropolitan area. Market-implied odds reflect this verified station data rather than forecasts. Revisions could theoretically emerge from post-processing adjustments or discrepancies across urban heat-island monitoring sites, though historical INMET practices make such shifts highly improbable once daily summaries are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
32°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$39,772 Vol.
$39,772 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$39,772 Vol.
$39,772 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
24°C or below
$3,159 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,827 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,797 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,661 Vol.
No
28°C
$768 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,043 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,446 Vol.
No
31°C
$7,368 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,633 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$4,238 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$1,833 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has locked in 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in São Paulo on August 28, driven by official maximum readings from INMET surface stations that aligned with model outputs and regional observations. Persistent high-pressure ridging, reduced cloud cover, and downslope warming from the Serra do Mar supported daytime heating to this level without exceeding it, consistent with late-winter climatology for the São Paulo metropolitan area. Market-implied odds reflect this verified station data rather than forecasts. Revisions could theoretically emerge from post-processing adjustments or discrepancies across urban heat-island monitoring sites, though historical INMET practices make such shifts highly improbable once daily summaries are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$39,772End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus has locked in 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in São Paulo on August 28, driven by official maximum readings from INMET surface stations that aligned with model outputs and regional observations. Persistent high-pressure ridging, reduced cloud cover, and downslope warming from the Serra do Mar supported daytime heating to this level without exceeding it, consistent with late-winter climatology for the São Paulo metropolitan area. Market-implied odds reflect this verified station data rather than forecasts. Revisions could theoretically emerge from post-processing adjustments or discrepancies across urban heat-island monitoring sites, though historical INMET practices make such shifts highly improbable once daily summaries are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,772End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus has locked in 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in São Paulo on August 28, driven by official maximum readings from INMET surface stations that aligned with model outputs and regional observations. Persistent high-pressure ridging, reduced cloud cover, and downslope warming from the Serra do Mar supported daytime heating to this level without exceeding it, consistent with late-winter climatology for the São Paulo metropolitan area. Market-implied odds reflect this verified station data rather than forecasts. Revisions could theoretically emerge from post-processing adjustments or discrepancies across urban heat-island monitoring sites, though historical INMET practices make such shifts highly improbable once daily summaries are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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