Hsu Hsin-ying’s KMT nomination in March 2026 after a mixed primary that combined 70% polling and 30% party-member votes has anchored trader consensus at an 82.5% implied probability for her win in the November 28 Hsinchu County magistrate election. She prevailed narrowly over deputy magistrate Chen Chien-hsien despite trailing in the member ballot, reflecting stronger broader polling support. The DPP’s June nomination of Zhubei Mayor Cheng Chao-fang, backed by President Lai Ching-te, established the main challenger at 18.5%, though surveys continue to show Hsu leading by several points across most municipalities outside Zhubei. Chen’s ongoing independent bid rumors and limited volume on other listed candidates further reinforce the market’s view of a de facto two-candidate contest favoring the KMT nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHsu Hsin-ying 83%
Cheng Chao-fang 18%
Lin Szu-ming <1%
Chen Chien-hsien <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Hsu Hsin-ying
83%
Cheng Chao-fang
18%
Lin Szu-ming
1%
Chen Chien-hsien
<1%
Hsu Hsin-ying 83%
Cheng Chao-fang 18%
Lin Szu-ming <1%
Chen Chien-hsien <1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Hsu Hsin-ying
$2,329 Vol.
83%
Cheng Chao-fang
$1,888 Vol.
18%
Lin Szu-ming
$354 Vol.
1%
Chen Chien-hsien
$292 Vol.
<1%
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Hsu Hsin-ying’s KMT nomination in March 2026 after a mixed primary that combined 70% polling and 30% party-member votes has anchored trader consensus at an 82.5% implied probability for her win in the November 28 Hsinchu County magistrate election. She prevailed narrowly over deputy magistrate Chen Chien-hsien despite trailing in the member ballot, reflecting stronger broader polling support. The DPP’s June nomination of Zhubei Mayor Cheng Chao-fang, backed by President Lai Ching-te, established the main challenger at 18.5%, though surveys continue to show Hsu leading by several points across most municipalities outside Zhubei. Chen’s ongoing independent bid rumors and limited volume on other listed candidates further reinforce the market’s view of a de facto two-candidate contest favoring the KMT nominee.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$4,864End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Hsu Hsin-ying’s KMT nomination in March 2026 after a mixed primary that combined 70% polling and 30% party-member votes has anchored trader consensus at an 82.5% implied probability for her win in the November 28 Hsinchu County magistrate election. She prevailed narrowly over deputy magistrate Chen Chien-hsien despite trailing in the member ballot, reflecting stronger broader polling support. The DPP’s June nomination of Zhubei Mayor Cheng Chao-fang, backed by President Lai Ching-te, established the main challenger at 18.5%, though surveys continue to show Hsu leading by several points across most municipalities outside Zhubei. Chen’s ongoing independent bid rumors and limited volume on other listed candidates further reinforce the market’s view of a de facto two-candidate contest favoring the KMT nominee.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$4,864End Date
Nov 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hsu Hsin-ying’s KMT nomination in March 2026 after a mixed primary that combined 70% polling and 30% party-member votes has anchored trader consensus at an 82.5% implied probability for her win in the November 28 Hsinchu County magistrate election. She prevailed narrowly over deputy magistrate Chen Chien-hsien despite trailing in the member ballot, reflecting stronger broader polling support. The DPP’s June nomination of Zhubei Mayor Cheng Chao-fang, backed by President Lai Ching-te, established the main challenger at 18.5%, though surveys continue to show Hsu leading by several points across most municipalities outside Zhubei. Chen’s ongoing independent bid rumors and limited volume on other listed candidates further reinforce the market’s view of a de facto two-candidate contest favoring the KMT nominee.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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