Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party led by Ofer Winter, hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold required for seats. Multiple surveys from mid-September place its projected support between roughly 3% and 5%, with some results below the bar and others clearing it by a narrow margin, often at the expense of Likud or Religious Zionism-Zehut lists. This volatility stems from competition for right-wing voters, limited time since the party's August launch, and calls from Netanyahu-aligned figures for consolidation to avoid wasted votes. Traders reflect this uncertainty through closely matched probabilities across bins near the threshold, with shifts likely from final campaign events, turnout patterns among security-minded voters, or further polling releases before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.25-4% 31%
<2.5% 31%
2.5-3.25% 16%
5%+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
31%
2.5-3.25%
16%
3.25-4%
44%
4-5%
46%
5%+
16%
3.25-4% 31%
<2.5% 31%
2.5-3.25% 16%
5%+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$196 Vol.
31%
2.5-3.25%
$16 Vol.
16%
3.25-4%
$43 Vol.
44%
4-5%
$18 Vol.
46%
5%+
$96 Vol.
16%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party led by Ofer Winter, hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold required for seats. Multiple surveys from mid-September place its projected support between roughly 3% and 5%, with some results below the bar and others clearing it by a narrow margin, often at the expense of Likud or Religious Zionism-Zehut lists. This volatility stems from competition for right-wing voters, limited time since the party's August launch, and calls from Netanyahu-aligned figures for consolidation to avoid wasted votes. Traders reflect this uncertainty through closely matched probabilities across bins near the threshold, with shifts likely from final campaign events, turnout patterns among security-minded voters, or further polling releases before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$370End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party led by Ofer Winter, hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold required for seats. Multiple surveys from mid-September place its projected support between roughly 3% and 5%, with some results below the bar and others clearing it by a narrow margin, often at the expense of Likud or Religious Zionism-Zehut lists. This volatility stems from competition for right-wing voters, limited time since the party's August launch, and calls from Netanyahu-aligned figures for consolidation to avoid wasted votes. Traders reflect this uncertainty through closely matched probabilities across bins near the threshold, with shifts likely from final campaign events, turnout patterns among security-minded voters, or further polling releases before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$370End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election shows Amcha Yisrael, the right-wing party led by Ofer Winter, hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold required for seats. Multiple surveys from mid-September place its projected support between roughly 3% and 5%, with some results below the bar and others clearing it by a narrow margin, often at the expense of Likud or Religious Zionism-Zehut lists. This volatility stems from competition for right-wing voters, limited time since the party's August launch, and calls from Netanyahu-aligned figures for consolidation to avoid wasted votes. Traders reflect this uncertainty through closely matched probabilities across bins near the threshold, with shifts likely from final campaign events, turnout patterns among security-minded voters, or further polling releases before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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