Ra'am's independent candidacy under Mansour Abbas, following its split from the Islamic Movement and addition of Jewish candidate Yoav Segalovitz, anchors trader pricing around the 4-5.5% range in recent polling averages. These surveys project the party near five seats while the Joint List holds seven to eight, with the two Arab lists' surplus-vote agreement reducing wasted ballots but not altering Ra'am's standalone base. Disqualification petitions filed by Likud and allies introduce procedural uncertainty ahead of the October 27 election, though past High Court precedents suggest limited impact. Variable Arab turnout and competition for the same voters keep the distribution of probabilities relatively flat across the middle bins rather than concentrated on any single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4-4.75% 40%
4.75-5.5% 25%
3.25-4% 14%
<3.25% 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<3.25%
13%
3.25-4%
14%
4-4.75%
38%
4.75-5.5%
25%
5.5%+
10%
4-4.75% 40%
4.75-5.5% 25%
3.25-4% 14%
<3.25% 13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
<3.25%
$309 Vol.
13%
3.25-4%
$293 Vol.
14%
4-4.75%
$1,068 Vol.
38%
4.75-5.5%
$207 Vol.
25%
5.5%+
$191 Vol.
10%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Ra'am's independent candidacy under Mansour Abbas, following its split from the Islamic Movement and addition of Jewish candidate Yoav Segalovitz, anchors trader pricing around the 4-5.5% range in recent polling averages. These surveys project the party near five seats while the Joint List holds seven to eight, with the two Arab lists' surplus-vote agreement reducing wasted ballots but not altering Ra'am's standalone base. Disqualification petitions filed by Likud and allies introduce procedural uncertainty ahead of the October 27 election, though past High Court precedents suggest limited impact. Variable Arab turnout and competition for the same voters keep the distribution of probabilities relatively flat across the middle bins rather than concentrated on any single outcome.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Volume
$2,069End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Ra'am's independent candidacy under Mansour Abbas, following its split from the Islamic Movement and addition of Jewish candidate Yoav Segalovitz, anchors trader pricing around the 4-5.5% range in recent polling averages. These surveys project the party near five seats while the Joint List holds seven to eight, with the two Arab lists' surplus-vote agreement reducing wasted ballots but not altering Ra'am's standalone base. Disqualification petitions filed by Likud and allies introduce procedural uncertainty ahead of the October 27 election, though past High Court precedents suggest limited impact. Variable Arab turnout and competition for the same voters keep the distribution of probabilities relatively flat across the middle bins rather than concentrated on any single outcome.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$2,069End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ra'am's independent candidacy under Mansour Abbas, following its split from the Islamic Movement and addition of Jewish candidate Yoav Segalovitz, anchors trader pricing around the 4-5.5% range in recent polling averages. These surveys project the party near five seats while the Joint List holds seven to eight, with the two Arab lists' surplus-vote agreement reducing wasted ballots but not altering Ra'am's standalone base. Disqualification petitions filed by Likud and allies introduce procedural uncertainty ahead of the October 27 election, though past High Court precedents suggest limited impact. Variable Arab turnout and competition for the same voters keep the distribution of probabilities relatively flat across the middle bins rather than concentrated on any single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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