Ty Masterson secured the Kansas Republican gubernatorial nomination on August 4 with 43.2% of the primary vote in a crowded seven-candidate field, outpacing businessman Philip Sarnecki’s 22.4% by roughly 21 points. Trump’s May endorsement helped consolidate conservative support behind the Senate president, while moderate and competing conservative votes split among Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, Secretary of State Scott Schwab, and others. With results now reported statewide and no active recounts underway, trader consensus assigns near-certainty to the 20–25% victory margin. Only a large-scale certification reversal or successful challenge altering thousands of ballots could realistically shift the outcome within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMasterson 20–25% 98.0%
Masterson 15–20% 1.9%
Masterson 5–10% 1.8%
Masterson 25%+ <1%
$19,592 Vol.
$19,592 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Masterson 25%+
<1%
Masterson 20–25%
98%
Masterson 15–20%
2%
Masterson 10–15%
<1%
Masterson 5–10%
2%
Masterson <5%
<1%
Masterson 20–25% 98.0%
Masterson 15–20% 1.9%
Masterson 5–10% 1.8%
Masterson 25%+ <1%
$19,592 Vol.
$19,592 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
Masterson 25%+
$6,927 Vol.
<1%
Masterson 20–25%
$1,852 Vol.
98%
Masterson 15–20%
$1,259 Vol.
2%
Masterson 10–15%
$1,565 Vol.
<1%
Masterson 5–10%
$1,122 Vol.
2%
Masterson <5%
$2,565 Vol.
<1%
The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ty Masterson secured the Kansas Republican gubernatorial nomination on August 4 with 43.2% of the primary vote in a crowded seven-candidate field, outpacing businessman Philip Sarnecki’s 22.4% by roughly 21 points. Trump’s May endorsement helped consolidate conservative support behind the Senate president, while moderate and competing conservative votes split among Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, Secretary of State Scott Schwab, and others. With results now reported statewide and no active recounts underway, trader consensus assigns near-certainty to the 20–25% victory margin. Only a large-scale certification reversal or successful challenge altering thousands of ballots could realistically shift the outcome within the resolution window.
The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 9:35 PM ET
Volume
$19,592End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ty Masterson secured the Kansas Republican gubernatorial nomination on August 4 with 43.2% of the primary vote in a crowded seven-candidate field, outpacing businessman Philip Sarnecki’s 22.4% by roughly 21 points. Trump’s May endorsement helped consolidate conservative support behind the Senate president, while moderate and competing conservative votes split among Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, Secretary of State Scott Schwab, and others. With results now reported statewide and no active recounts underway, trader consensus assigns near-certainty to the 20–25% victory margin. Only a large-scale certification reversal or successful challenge altering thousands of ballots could realistically shift the outcome within the resolution window.
The Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election will be held on August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Kansas Gubernatorial Republican primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Kansas, such as official statewide results published by the Kansas Secretary of State (https://sos.ks.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$19,592End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 9:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ty Masterson secured the Kansas Republican gubernatorial nomination on August 4 with 43.2% of the primary vote in a crowded seven-candidate field, outpacing businessman Philip Sarnecki’s 22.4% by roughly 21 points. Trump’s May endorsement helped consolidate conservative support behind the Senate president, while moderate and competing conservative votes split among Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, Secretary of State Scott Schwab, and others. With results now reported statewide and no active recounts underway, trader consensus assigns near-certainty to the 20–25% victory margin. Only a large-scale certification reversal or successful challenge altering thousands of ballots could realistically shift the outcome within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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