Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall secured his party's nomination with nearly 80% of the August 4 primary vote and holds a consistent polling edge of 4–10 points over Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and the state's 16-point Republican presidential margin in 2024 reinforces the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration in a midterm cycle. Recent surveys from August show a somewhat narrowed gap compared with earlier fundamentals-based forecasts, yet forecasters continue to rate the race Likely or Solid Republican. Traders price the Republican outcome at 79.5% as a reflection of these durable partisan and historical factors, with the November 3 general election still two months away.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$45,050 Vol.
$45,050 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
79%
Democrat
20%
$45,050 Vol.
$45,050 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican
$29,707 Vol.
79%
Democrat
$15,343 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall secured his party's nomination with nearly 80% of the August 4 primary vote and holds a consistent polling edge of 4–10 points over Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and the state's 16-point Republican presidential margin in 2024 reinforces the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration in a midterm cycle. Recent surveys from August show a somewhat narrowed gap compared with earlier fundamentals-based forecasts, yet forecasters continue to rate the race Likely or Solid Republican. Traders price the Republican outcome at 79.5% as a reflection of these durable partisan and historical factors, with the November 3 general election still two months away.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$45,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall secured his party's nomination with nearly 80% of the August 4 primary vote and holds a consistent polling edge of 4–10 points over Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and the state's 16-point Republican presidential margin in 2024 reinforces the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration in a midterm cycle. Recent surveys from August show a somewhat narrowed gap compared with earlier fundamentals-based forecasts, yet forecasters continue to rate the race Likely or Solid Republican. Traders price the Republican outcome at 79.5% as a reflection of these durable partisan and historical factors, with the November 3 general election still two months away.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$45,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall secured his party's nomination with nearly 80% of the August 4 primary vote and holds a consistent polling edge of 4–10 points over Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and the state's 16-point Republican presidential margin in 2024 reinforces the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration in a midterm cycle. Recent surveys from August show a somewhat narrowed gap compared with earlier fundamentals-based forecasts, yet forecasters continue to rate the race Likely or Solid Republican. Traders price the Republican outcome at 79.5% as a reflection of these durable partisan and historical factors, with the November 3 general election still two months away.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions