Élodie Murphy-Gauthier of the Parti Québécois holds the strongest trader consensus at 65.5% for the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, ahead of Coalition Avenir Québec candidate Guy Veillette at 31.5%, with other declared contenders including Conservative Charles Paquin and Liberal Laurent Bélisle at minimal implied probabilities. Recent polling aggregates and riding projections from models such as 338Canada and Vote-Scope show the PQ narrowly ahead or in a toss-up, reflecting a reversal from the CAQ’s 51.7% result in 2022 under retiring MNA Marie-Louise Tardif. Murphy-Gauthier’s profile as a local family physician and her April 2026 campaign launch emphasizing health-care access have aligned with broader provincial momentum for the PQ, while Veillette’s background as a longtime regional journalist provides the CAQ with established local roots. The close race leaves room for shifts driven by turnout in Shawinigan and surrounding areas or late-campaign developments before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedÉlodie Murphy-Gauthier 65%
Guy Veillette 30%
Laurent Bélisle <1%
Charles Paquin <1%
Élodie Murphy-Gauthier
67%
Guy Veillette
32%
Laurent Bélisle
<1%
Charles Paquin
<1%
Élodie Murphy-Gauthier 65%
Guy Veillette 30%
Laurent Bélisle <1%
Charles Paquin <1%
Élodie Murphy-Gauthier
67%
Guy Veillette
32%
Laurent Bélisle
<1%
Charles Paquin
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laviolette–Saint-Maurice Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Resolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Élodie Murphy-Gauthier of the Parti Québécois holds the strongest trader consensus at 65.5% for the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, ahead of Coalition Avenir Québec candidate Guy Veillette at 31.5%, with other declared contenders including Conservative Charles Paquin and Liberal Laurent Bélisle at minimal implied probabilities. Recent polling aggregates and riding projections from models such as 338Canada and Vote-Scope show the PQ narrowly ahead or in a toss-up, reflecting a reversal from the CAQ’s 51.7% result in 2022 under retiring MNA Marie-Louise Tardif. Murphy-Gauthier’s profile as a local family physician and her April 2026 campaign launch emphasizing health-care access have aligned with broader provincial momentum for the PQ, while Veillette’s background as a longtime regional journalist provides the CAQ with established local roots. The close race leaves room for shifts driven by turnout in Shawinigan and surrounding areas or late-campaign developments before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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