Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF, alongside official guidance from sources like AEMET and the Met Office, indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on August 28 will likely occur near dawn under clearing skies with light southwest winds and low dew points near 9-10°C. Radiative cooling overnight, aided by dry air masses and minimal cloud cover, supports a dip into the low-to-mid 12°C range—slightly below the late-August climatological average of ~18°C—while model spreads of 1-2°C across runs explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11-13°C. Clear conditions favor the lower end, but any residual moisture or wind shifts could limit the drop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 28?
12°C 44%
11°C 44%
13°C 44%
15°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
10%
10°C
40%
11°C
44%
12°C
44%
13°C
44%
14°C
10%
15°C
43%
16°C
43%
17°C
8%
18°C
8%
19°C or higher
3%
12°C 44%
11°C 44%
13°C 44%
15°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
$69 Vol.
10%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
44%
12°C
$0 Vol.
44%
13°C
$0 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
10%
15°C
$0 Vol.
43%
16°C
$0 Vol.
43%
17°C
$20 Vol.
8%
18°C
$5 Vol.
8%
19°C or higher
$15 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF, alongside official guidance from sources like AEMET and the Met Office, indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on August 28 will likely occur near dawn under clearing skies with light southwest winds and low dew points near 9-10°C. Radiative cooling overnight, aided by dry air masses and minimal cloud cover, supports a dip into the low-to-mid 12°C range—slightly below the late-August climatological average of ~18°C—while model spreads of 1-2°C across runs explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11-13°C. Clear conditions favor the lower end, but any residual moisture or wind shifts could limit the drop.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$109End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF, alongside official guidance from sources like AEMET and the Met Office, indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on August 28 will likely occur near dawn under clearing skies with light southwest winds and low dew points near 9-10°C. Radiative cooling overnight, aided by dry air masses and minimal cloud cover, supports a dip into the low-to-mid 12°C range—slightly below the late-August climatological average of ~18°C—while model spreads of 1-2°C across runs explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11-13°C. Clear conditions favor the lower end, but any residual moisture or wind shifts could limit the drop.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$109End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF, alongside official guidance from sources like AEMET and the Met Office, indicate Madrid's minimum temperature on August 28 will likely occur near dawn under clearing skies with light southwest winds and low dew points near 9-10°C. Radiative cooling overnight, aided by dry air masses and minimal cloud cover, supports a dip into the low-to-mid 12°C range—slightly below the late-August climatological average of ~18°C—while model spreads of 1-2°C across runs explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11-13°C. Clear conditions favor the lower end, but any residual moisture or wind shifts could limit the drop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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