Incumbent Denny Tamaki holds an 80% implied probability in the September 13 Okinawa gubernatorial election due to his established incumbency, unified backing from the All Okinawa opposition coalition, and the prefecture’s historical resistance to LDP-backed base policies. Campaigning opened on August 27 with Tamaki emphasizing continued opposition to the Henoko relocation of Futenma Air Station, while LDP-supported challenger Genta Koja at 18% centers his platform on economic measures such as addressing high prices and infrastructure. Koja benefits from consolidated conservative support after potential rival Mikio Shimoji withdrew, yet faces structural hurdles in shifting voter priorities away from base-burden concerns. Minor candidates remain at low single-digit odds, reflecting limited viability in this effectively two-way contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDenny Tamaki 81%
Genta Koja 19%
Mikio Shimoji 1.4%
Masahiro Sueyoshi 1.0%
$10,458 Vol.
$10,458 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
Denny Tamaki
81%
Genta Koja
19%
Mikio Shimoji
1%
Masahiro Sueyoshi
1%
Shun Kaneshima
1%
Takashi Higa
1%
Chosuke Yara
<1%
Denny Tamaki 81%
Genta Koja 19%
Mikio Shimoji 1.4%
Masahiro Sueyoshi 1.0%
$10,458 Vol.
$10,458 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
Denny Tamaki
$7,622 Vol.
81%
Genta Koja
$887 Vol.
19%
Mikio Shimoji
$420 Vol.
1%
Masahiro Sueyoshi
$432 Vol.
1%
Shun Kaneshima
$305 Vol.
1%
Takashi Higa
$412 Vol.
1%
Chosuke Yara
$379 Vol.
<1%
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).Incumbent Denny Tamaki holds an 80% implied probability in the September 13 Okinawa gubernatorial election due to his established incumbency, unified backing from the All Okinawa opposition coalition, and the prefecture’s historical resistance to LDP-backed base policies. Campaigning opened on August 27 with Tamaki emphasizing continued opposition to the Henoko relocation of Futenma Air Station, while LDP-supported challenger Genta Koja at 18% centers his platform on economic measures such as addressing high prices and infrastructure. Koja benefits from consolidated conservative support after potential rival Mikio Shimoji withdrew, yet faces structural hurdles in shifting voter priorities away from base-burden concerns. Minor candidates remain at low single-digit odds, reflecting limited viability in this effectively two-way contest.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
Volume
$10,458End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).Incumbent Denny Tamaki holds an 80% implied probability in the September 13 Okinawa gubernatorial election due to his established incumbency, unified backing from the All Okinawa opposition coalition, and the prefecture’s historical resistance to LDP-backed base policies. Campaigning opened on August 27 with Tamaki emphasizing continued opposition to the Henoko relocation of Futenma Air Station, while LDP-supported challenger Genta Koja at 18% centers his platform on economic measures such as addressing high prices and infrastructure. Koja benefits from consolidated conservative support after potential rival Mikio Shimoji withdrew, yet faces structural hurdles in shifting voter priorities away from base-burden concerns. Minor candidates remain at low single-digit odds, reflecting limited viability in this effectively two-way contest.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
Volume
$10,458End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Denny Tamaki holds an 80% implied probability in the September 13 Okinawa gubernatorial election due to his established incumbency, unified backing from the All Okinawa opposition coalition, and the prefecture’s historical resistance to LDP-backed base policies. Campaigning opened on August 27 with Tamaki emphasizing continued opposition to the Henoko relocation of Futenma Air Station, while LDP-supported challenger Genta Koja at 18% centers his platform on economic measures such as addressing high prices and infrastructure. Koja benefits from consolidated conservative support after potential rival Mikio Shimoji withdrew, yet faces structural hurdles in shifting voter priorities away from base-burden concerns. Minor candidates remain at low single-digit odds, reflecting limited viability in this effectively two-way contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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