Skip to main content
icon for Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner
Politics·Cavite

Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner

icon for Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner
Politics·Cavite

Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner

Jennifer Austria Barzaga 97.7%

Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat 2.0%

Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr. 1.0%

Leysander Aguilar Ordenes <1%

Polymarket

$10,083 Vol.

Jennifer Austria Barzaga 97.7%

Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat 2.0%

Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr. 1.0%

Leysander Aguilar Ordenes <1%

Polymarket

$10,083 Vol.

icon for Jennifer Austria Barzaga

Jennifer Austria Barzaga

$5,110 Vol.

98%

icon for Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat

Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat

$1,578 Vol.

2%

icon for Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr.

Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr.

$1,267 Vol.

1%

icon for Leysander Aguilar Ordenes

Leysander Aguilar Ordenes

$964 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag

Marvin Opamin Dupal-ag

$1,163 Vol.

<1%

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.Jennifer Austria Barzaga holds overwhelming trader consensus at 97.9% due to her incumbency as Dasmariñas mayor, prior service as the district's representative, and the Barzaga family's entrenched local organization following her son Kiko's June 2026 House expulsion for disorderly conduct. Official endorsements from Cavite Governor Abeng Remulla and other provincial leaders, combined with the district's concentrated voter base in her city, reinforce this positioning ahead of the August 29 special election. The remaining candidates, including Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat and Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr., lack comparable resources or name recognition. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unusually low turnout among Barzaga supporters or unexpected late endorsements consolidating opposition votes, though current market pricing reflects the family's structural dominance in the first-past-the-post contest.

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
Volume
$10,083
End Date
Aug 29, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.Jennifer Austria Barzaga holds overwhelming trader consensus at 97.9% due to her incumbency as Dasmariñas mayor, prior service as the district's representative, and the Barzaga family's entrenched local organization following her son Kiko's June 2026 House expulsion for disorderly conduct. Official endorsements from Cavite Governor Abeng Remulla and other provincial leaders, combined with the district's concentrated voter base in her city, reinforce this positioning ahead of the August 29 special election. The remaining candidates, including Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat and Jacinto Bautista Frani Jr., lack comparable resources or name recognition. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include unusually low turnout among Barzaga supporters or unexpected late endorsements consolidating opposition votes, though current market pricing reflects the family's structural dominance in the first-past-the-post contest.

A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.
Volume
$10,083
End Date
Aug 29, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is currently scheduled for August 29, 2026 to fill the 4th congressional district seat of Cavite in the Philippine House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.comelec.gov.ph/.

Related

icon for Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?

Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?

71%
icon for Will Luz Rivas win the CA-29 House seat?

Will Luz Rivas win the CA-29 House seat?

88%
icon for Will Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat?

Will Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat?

80%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jennifer Austria Barzaga" at 98%, followed by "Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" has generated $10.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" is "Jennifer Austria Barzaga" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Raul Rex Del Rosario Mangubat" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Philippines, Cavite 4th Congressional District Special Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.