Recent polling ahead of the September 6 Landtag election in Sachsen-Anhalt shows the AfD maintaining a commanding lead of roughly 17–20 points over the CDU, with the party consistently placed near or above 40 percent while all other contenders remain in single digits. This sustained advantage, evident across multiple institutes in the final weeks, has driven trader consensus toward the AfD as the clear parliamentary election winner in terms of seats. Other parties, including the incumbent CDU-led coalition partners, have not narrowed the gap despite campaign efforts, and structural factors such as the five-percent threshold further limit challengers’ prospects. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an unprecedented late swing in undecided voters or turnout patterns that disproportionately benefit smaller parties, though current data indicate such shifts would require substantial movement within the narrow remaining window.