Recent Quaest polling from late August shows Esperidião Amin (PP) at 19%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 16%, Carol de Toni (PL) at 12%, and Décio Lima (PT) at 9% in the stimulated scenario for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats, with over 30% undecided or blank. The PL’s August convention formalized a ticket pairing Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni behind Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid, prompting Amin to align instead with João Rodrigues (PSD). This realignment and Carlos Bolsonaro’s relocation from Rio de Janeiro have concentrated right-leaning support among three frontrunners while leaving room for vote splitting. The narrow spreads in current trader pricing mirror these polling margins and the structural feature that voters cast two ballots, keeping separation between second and third place highly sensitive to turnout shifts and late campaign consolidation among the leading contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carlos Bolsonaro 34%
Esperidião Amin 32%
Carol de Toni 29%
Jeferson da Rocha 3.6%
$28,890 Vol.
$28,890 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
34%
Esperidião Amin
32%
Carol de Toni
29%
Jeferson da Rocha
4%
Lunelli
<1%
Carol
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 34%
Esperidião Amin 32%
Carol de Toni 29%
Jeferson da Rocha 3.6%
$28,890 Vol.
$28,890 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$9,138 Vol.
34%
Esperidião Amin
$2,813 Vol.
32%
Carol de Toni
$10,346 Vol.
29%
Jeferson da Rocha
$921 Vol.
4%
Lunelli
$642 Vol.
<1%
Carol
$608 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$707 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$710 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$663 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$659 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$569 Vol.
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$550 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$565 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest polling from late August shows Esperidião Amin (PP) at 19%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 16%, Carol de Toni (PL) at 12%, and Décio Lima (PT) at 9% in the stimulated scenario for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats, with over 30% undecided or blank. The PL’s August convention formalized a ticket pairing Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni behind Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid, prompting Amin to align instead with João Rodrigues (PSD). This realignment and Carlos Bolsonaro’s relocation from Rio de Janeiro have concentrated right-leaning support among three frontrunners while leaving room for vote splitting. The narrow spreads in current trader pricing mirror these polling margins and the structural feature that voters cast two ballots, keeping separation between second and third place highly sensitive to turnout shifts and late campaign consolidation among the leading contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$28,890End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Quaest polling from late August shows Esperidião Amin (PP) at 19%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 16%, Carol de Toni (PL) at 12%, and Décio Lima (PT) at 9% in the stimulated scenario for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats, with over 30% undecided or blank. The PL’s August convention formalized a ticket pairing Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni behind Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid, prompting Amin to align instead with João Rodrigues (PSD). This realignment and Carlos Bolsonaro’s relocation from Rio de Janeiro have concentrated right-leaning support among three frontrunners while leaving room for vote splitting. The narrow spreads in current trader pricing mirror these polling margins and the structural feature that voters cast two ballots, keeping separation between second and third place highly sensitive to turnout shifts and late campaign consolidation among the leading contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,890End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Quaest polling from late August shows Esperidião Amin (PP) at 19%, Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) at 16%, Carol de Toni (PL) at 12%, and Décio Lima (PT) at 9% in the stimulated scenario for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats, with over 30% undecided or blank. The PL’s August convention formalized a ticket pairing Carlos Bolsonaro and Carol de Toni behind Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid, prompting Amin to align instead with João Rodrigues (PSD). This realignment and Carlos Bolsonaro’s relocation from Rio de Janeiro have concentrated right-leaning support among three frontrunners while leaving room for vote splitting. The narrow spreads in current trader pricing mirror these polling margins and the structural feature that voters cast two ballots, keeping separation between second and third place highly sensitive to turnout shifts and late campaign consolidation among the leading contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions