Recent polling from late August shows a fragmented right-wing vote keeping the contest for second place tightly matched among Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL). Amin leads numerically in combined intentions but remains within the margin of error of the PL candidates in both first- and second-vote scenarios, reflecting the impact of the PL's decision to field a pure slate of Bolsonaro and de Toni while Amin allied separately. High undecided rates above 80% in spontaneous polls and limited name recognition for newer entrants sustain the uncertainty. Upcoming campaign events, turnout shifts among conservative voters, and any late endorsements could widen gaps before the October 4 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Esperidião Amin 35%
Carlos Bolsonaro 34%
Carol de Toni 29%
Jeferson da Rocha 2.7%
$28,890 Vol.
$28,890 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Esperidião Amin
35%
Carlos Bolsonaro
34%
Carol de Toni
29%
Jeferson da Rocha
3%
Lunelli
<1%
Carol
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Esperidião Amin 35%
Carlos Bolsonaro 34%
Carol de Toni 29%
Jeferson da Rocha 2.7%
$28,890 Vol.
$28,890 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Esperidião Amin
$2,813 Vol.
35%
Carlos Bolsonaro
$9,138 Vol.
34%
Carol de Toni
$10,346 Vol.
29%
Jeferson da Rocha
$921 Vol.
3%
Lunelli
$642 Vol.
<1%
Carol
$608 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$707 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$710 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$663 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$659 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$569 Vol.
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$550 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$565 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a fragmented right-wing vote keeping the contest for second place tightly matched among Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL). Amin leads numerically in combined intentions but remains within the margin of error of the PL candidates in both first- and second-vote scenarios, reflecting the impact of the PL's decision to field a pure slate of Bolsonaro and de Toni while Amin allied separately. High undecided rates above 80% in spontaneous polls and limited name recognition for newer entrants sustain the uncertainty. Upcoming campaign events, turnout shifts among conservative voters, and any late endorsements could widen gaps before the October 4 election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$28,890End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from late August shows a fragmented right-wing vote keeping the contest for second place tightly matched among Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL). Amin leads numerically in combined intentions but remains within the margin of error of the PL candidates in both first- and second-vote scenarios, reflecting the impact of the PL's decision to field a pure slate of Bolsonaro and de Toni while Amin allied separately. High undecided rates above 80% in spontaneous polls and limited name recognition for newer entrants sustain the uncertainty. Upcoming campaign events, turnout shifts among conservative voters, and any late endorsements could widen gaps before the October 4 election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$28,890End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from late August shows a fragmented right-wing vote keeping the contest for second place tightly matched among Esperidião Amin (PP), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Carol de Toni (PL). Amin leads numerically in combined intentions but remains within the margin of error of the PL candidates in both first- and second-vote scenarios, reflecting the impact of the PL's decision to field a pure slate of Bolsonaro and de Toni while Amin allied separately. High undecided rates above 80% in spontaneous polls and limited name recognition for newer entrants sustain the uncertainty. Upcoming campaign events, turnout shifts among conservative voters, and any late endorsements could widen gaps before the October 4 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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