Recent polls place the Moderate Party (M) at 17-19% support ahead of the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, with a polling average near 17.9%. This positioning underpins the market’s emphasis on the 16-18% band, as the party has fluctuated in that range since spring while trailing both the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats. The Tidö government bloc has narrowed its deficit to the opposition in August surveys, coinciding with modest M gains in several trackers, though the Liberals remain below the four-percent threshold. Campaign attention on cost-of-living pressures, crime, immigration, and energy has not produced sustained upward movement for M beyond recent margins of error. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to outcomes clustered around current survey readings rather than a late surge above 20% or a drop below 16%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16-18% 41%
<16% 29%
18-20% 22%
20%+ 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
29%
16-18%
41%
18-20%
22%
20%+
12%
16-18% 41%
<16% 29%
18-20% 22%
20%+ 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
$2,511 Vol.
29%
16-18%
$2,030 Vol.
41%
18-20%
$615 Vol.
22%
20%+
$1,026 Vol.
12%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polls place the Moderate Party (M) at 17-19% support ahead of the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, with a polling average near 17.9%. This positioning underpins the market’s emphasis on the 16-18% band, as the party has fluctuated in that range since spring while trailing both the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats. The Tidö government bloc has narrowed its deficit to the opposition in August surveys, coinciding with modest M gains in several trackers, though the Liberals remain below the four-percent threshold. Campaign attention on cost-of-living pressures, crime, immigration, and energy has not produced sustained upward movement for M beyond recent margins of error. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to outcomes clustered around current survey readings rather than a late surge above 20% or a drop below 16%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ET
Volume
$6,182End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polls place the Moderate Party (M) at 17-19% support ahead of the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, with a polling average near 17.9%. This positioning underpins the market’s emphasis on the 16-18% band, as the party has fluctuated in that range since spring while trailing both the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats. The Tidö government bloc has narrowed its deficit to the opposition in August surveys, coinciding with modest M gains in several trackers, though the Liberals remain below the four-percent threshold. Campaign attention on cost-of-living pressures, crime, immigration, and energy has not produced sustained upward movement for M beyond recent margins of error. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to outcomes clustered around current survey readings rather than a late surge above 20% or a drop below 16%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$6,182End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place the Moderate Party (M) at 17-19% support ahead of the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, with a polling average near 17.9%. This positioning underpins the market’s emphasis on the 16-18% band, as the party has fluctuated in that range since spring while trailing both the Sweden Democrats and Social Democrats. The Tidö government bloc has narrowed its deficit to the opposition in August surveys, coinciding with modest M gains in several trackers, though the Liberals remain below the four-percent threshold. Campaign attention on cost-of-living pressures, crime, immigration, and energy has not produced sustained upward movement for M beyond recent margins of error. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to outcomes clustered around current survey readings rather than a late surge above 20% or a drop below 16%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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