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Politics·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District
Politics·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District

Flavio Bolsonaro 82%

Lula 18%

Hertz Dias <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$27,284 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 82%

Lula 18%

Hertz Dias <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$27,284 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$11,232 Vol.

82%

icon for Lula

Lula

$9,485 Vol.

18%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$559 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$565 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$546 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$532 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,611 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$504 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$343 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$284 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$500 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$591 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong positioning in Federal District polling, including a 39-31% lead over Lula in the most recent Datafolha survey and competitive or leading numbers in Quaest fieldwork, underpins the elevated market probability for him finishing first in the October 4 first round. The capital region’s consistent right-leaning electorate and historical alignment with the Liberal Party (PL) have amplified this edge, even as national aggregates show a tighter race. Lula’s lower implied odds reflect weaker local support despite his incumbency, while scattered support for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury remains fragmented below double digits. Flávio’s late-August statements affirming respect for electoral rules and the ongoing campaign period have reinforced trader expectations without shifting the district-specific dynamics.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$27,284
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong positioning in Federal District polling, including a 39-31% lead over Lula in the most recent Datafolha survey and competitive or leading numbers in Quaest fieldwork, underpins the elevated market probability for him finishing first in the October 4 first round. The capital region’s consistent right-leaning electorate and historical alignment with the Liberal Party (PL) have amplified this edge, even as national aggregates show a tighter race. Lula’s lower implied odds reflect weaker local support despite his incumbency, while scattered support for Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury remains fragmented below double digits. Flávio’s late-August statements affirming respect for electoral rules and the ongoing campaign period have reinforced trader expectations without shifting the district-specific dynamics.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$27,284
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 82%, followed by "Lula" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District" has generated $27.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.