Skip to main content
icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás
Elections·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás
Elections·Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás

Flavio Bolsonaro 66%

Ronaldo Caiado 27%

Lula 2.1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$49,261 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 66%

Ronaldo Caiado 27%

Lula 2.1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$49,261 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$23,956 Vol.

66%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$13,165 Vol.

27%

icon for Lula

Lula

$6,384 Vol.

2%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$469 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$458 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$494 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$519 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,480 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$570 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$385 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$398 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$537 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$444 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in Goiás show Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) leading the presidential first-round field with 32–35% support, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 27% and Lula (PT) at 20–27%, reflecting Caiado’s strong local profile after two terms as governor and his decision to resign in March 2026 to pursue the national race. Despite this, market pricing places Flávio Bolsonaro as the heavy favorite for first place in the state at 66%, with Caiado a distant second at 26.5% and Lula near 2%. Traders appear to weigh national right-wing consolidation behind the PL nominee, party infrastructure advantages, and broader electoral dynamics over Caiado’s home-state incumbency effects. Lula’s low implied probability aligns with consistent weakness in the state across surveys. The October 4 first-round vote will determine resolution, with limited scope for late shifts given the narrow campaign window.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$49,261
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in Goiás show Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) leading the presidential first-round field with 32–35% support, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 27% and Lula (PT) at 20–27%, reflecting Caiado’s strong local profile after two terms as governor and his decision to resign in March 2026 to pursue the national race. Despite this, market pricing places Flávio Bolsonaro as the heavy favorite for first place in the state at 66%, with Caiado a distant second at 26.5% and Lula near 2%. Traders appear to weigh national right-wing consolidation behind the PL nominee, party infrastructure advantages, and broader electoral dynamics over Caiado’s home-state incumbency effects. Lula’s low implied probability aligns with consistent weakness in the state across surveys. The October 4 first-round vote will determine resolution, with limited scope for late shifts given the narrow campaign window.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$49,261
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?

Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?

96%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

94%
icon for Will Gracinha Caiado win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?

Will Gracinha Caiado win the most votes in the 2026 Goiás Senate election?

71%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 66%, followed by "Ronaldo Caiado" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás" has generated $49.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.