Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso do Sul first-round polls at 33-35% against Lula's 27%, reflecting strong regional backing for the Liberal Party nominee and continuity of Bolsonarista preferences in the Center-West. Recent Quaest surveys from late August confirm this gap, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema trailing in single digits amid 13-30% undecided or blank voters. His official PL candidacy since July and inheritance of established voter networks reinforce trader consensus. Shifts could arise if undecided blocs consolidate behind Lula or other right-leaning alternatives before the October 4 vote, or if national events alter local turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 92.3%
Lula 3.4%
Zema 2.8%
Clariana Barao 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
92%
Lula
3%
Zema
3%
Clariana Barao
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Samara
2%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 92.3%
Lula 3.4%
Zema 2.8%
Clariana Barao 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$4,930 Vol.
92%
Lula
$470 Vol.
3%
Zema
$191 Vol.
3%
Clariana Barao
$254 Vol.
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$195 Vol.
2%
Samara
$240 Vol.
2%
Hertz Dias
$271 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$316 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$247 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$207 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$264 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$307 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$338 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso do Sul first-round polls at 33-35% against Lula's 27%, reflecting strong regional backing for the Liberal Party nominee and continuity of Bolsonarista preferences in the Center-West. Recent Quaest surveys from late August confirm this gap, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema trailing in single digits amid 13-30% undecided or blank voters. His official PL candidacy since July and inheritance of established voter networks reinforce trader consensus. Shifts could arise if undecided blocs consolidate behind Lula or other right-leaning alternatives before the October 4 vote, or if national events alter local turnout dynamics.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$8,229End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso do Sul first-round polls at 33-35% against Lula's 27%, reflecting strong regional backing for the Liberal Party nominee and continuity of Bolsonarista preferences in the Center-West. Recent Quaest surveys from late August confirm this gap, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema trailing in single digits amid 13-30% undecided or blank voters. His official PL candidacy since July and inheritance of established voter networks reinforce trader consensus. Shifts could arise if undecided blocs consolidate behind Lula or other right-leaning alternatives before the October 4 vote, or if national events alter local turnout dynamics.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,229End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Mato Grosso do Sul first-round polls at 33-35% against Lula's 27%, reflecting strong regional backing for the Liberal Party nominee and continuity of Bolsonarista preferences in the Center-West. Recent Quaest surveys from late August confirm this gap, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema trailing in single digits amid 13-30% undecided or blank voters. His official PL candidacy since July and inheritance of established voter networks reinforce trader consensus. Shifts could arise if undecided blocs consolidate behind Lula or other right-leaning alternatives before the October 4 vote, or if national events alter local turnout dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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