Recent national polls show a tightening race ahead of the October 4 first round, with Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro of roughly four to six points in most surveys (such as Datafolha at 39-33, Nexus at 41-37, and PoderData at 38-35), all within margins of error and far below the 50% threshold for an outright win. This positioning has driven trader focus on small margins, elevating Lula da Silva 5-10% and <5% outcomes while sidelining wider spreads or victories by other candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos, who remain in single digits. The gap has narrowed steadily since July amid official campaign launch, free TV/radio advertising starting late August, and regional polling splits that highlight polarization without shifting national aggregates. Flávio Bolsonaro’s consolidation of right-wing support and public pledges to respect results have further stabilized the contest around a close first-round finish.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 45%
Lula da Silva <5% 34%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 6.6%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.2%
$359,345 Vol.
$359,345 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
45%
Lula da Silva <5%
34%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
7%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 45%
Lula da Silva <5% 34%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 6.6%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.2%
$359,345 Vol.
$359,345 Vol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$15,676 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$29,034 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$25,889 Vol.
45%
Lula da Silva <5%
$29,779 Vol.
34%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$10,588 Vol.
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$8,276 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$13,376 Vol.
7%
Renan Santos Victory
$211,565 Vol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$4,733 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$4,757 Vol.
<1%
Other
$5,673 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls show a tightening race ahead of the October 4 first round, with Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro of roughly four to six points in most surveys (such as Datafolha at 39-33, Nexus at 41-37, and PoderData at 38-35), all within margins of error and far below the 50% threshold for an outright win. This positioning has driven trader focus on small margins, elevating Lula da Silva 5-10% and <5% outcomes while sidelining wider spreads or victories by other candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos, who remain in single digits. The gap has narrowed steadily since July amid official campaign launch, free TV/radio advertising starting late August, and regional polling splits that highlight polarization without shifting national aggregates. Flávio Bolsonaro’s consolidation of right-wing support and public pledges to respect results have further stabilized the contest around a close first-round finish.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$359,345End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls show a tightening race ahead of the October 4 first round, with Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro of roughly four to six points in most surveys (such as Datafolha at 39-33, Nexus at 41-37, and PoderData at 38-35), all within margins of error and far below the 50% threshold for an outright win. This positioning has driven trader focus on small margins, elevating Lula da Silva 5-10% and <5% outcomes while sidelining wider spreads or victories by other candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos, who remain in single digits. The gap has narrowed steadily since July amid official campaign launch, free TV/radio advertising starting late August, and regional polling splits that highlight polarization without shifting national aggregates. Flávio Bolsonaro’s consolidation of right-wing support and public pledges to respect results have further stabilized the contest around a close first-round finish.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$359,345End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent national polls show a tightening race ahead of the October 4 first round, with Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro of roughly four to six points in most surveys (such as Datafolha at 39-33, Nexus at 41-37, and PoderData at 38-35), all within margins of error and far below the 50% threshold for an outright win. This positioning has driven trader focus on small margins, elevating Lula da Silva 5-10% and <5% outcomes while sidelining wider spreads or victories by other candidates like Ronaldo Caiado or Renan Santos, who remain in single digits. The gap has narrowed steadily since July amid official campaign launch, free TV/radio advertising starting late August, and regional polling splits that highlight polarization without shifting national aggregates. Flávio Bolsonaro’s consolidation of right-wing support and public pledges to respect results have further stabilized the contest around a close first-round finish.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
37%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
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