Daniel Gobeil holds the leading position in the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord federal by-election market ahead of the August 31 vote, driven by the riding’s recent three-way competitiveness and alignment with Liberal strengths under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Gobeil, a local dairy farmer and former head of Quebec’s milk producers, benefits from name recognition in the agriculture-focused Saguenay region and voter emphasis on supply management amid U.S. trade tensions. Caroline Dubé of the Bloc Québécois draws on the party’s established regional presence and her constituency experience but trails in trader pricing. Régis Gaudreault of the Conservatives, despite the riding’s prior Conservative hold, registers minimal implied probability following the short campaign window and limited shifts in local polling. Broader economic concerns, including temporary foreign worker policies, have further consolidated consensus around the Liberal candidate in this francophone Quebec seat.