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icon for Falealili 1 By-Election Winner
World·Samoa

Falealili 1 By-Election Winner

icon for Falealili 1 By-Election Winner
World·Samoa

Falealili 1 By-Election Winner

Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale 33%

Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu 27%

Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko 25%

Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea 6.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale 33%

Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu 27%

Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko 25%

Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea 6.8%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale

Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale

$696 Vol.

33%

icon for Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu

Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu

$1,446 Vol.

27%

icon for Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko

Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko

$2,366 Vol.

25%

icon for Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea

Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea

$183 Vol.

7%

icon for Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu

Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu

$51 Vol.

5%

icon for Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen

Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen

$124 Vol.

4%

icon for Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai

Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai

$939 Vol.

1%

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).The Falealili 1 by-election in Samoa, scheduled for September 18, 2026, features a crowded field exceeding a dozen candidates following the Court of Appeal's June 2026 upholding of the voided 2025 result for former FAST MP and Deputy Prime Minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo over bribery findings. Trader consensus shows tightly clustered odds near 30 percent for leading contenders, including HRPP nominees Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu and Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko alongside independents such as Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale, reflecting vote fragmentation in a first-past-the-post system without a dominant frontrunner. Recent candidate confirmations and the September 4 withdrawal deadline have kept probabilities balanced, while the absence of public polling data leaves assessments reliant on historical party performance and local dynamics. Clear separation could emerge from last-minute endorsements, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, or official results from the Electoral Commission.

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.

If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Volume
$5,807
End Date
Sep 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).The Falealili 1 by-election in Samoa, scheduled for September 18, 2026, features a crowded field exceeding a dozen candidates following the Court of Appeal's June 2026 upholding of the voided 2025 result for former FAST MP and Deputy Prime Minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo over bribery findings. Trader consensus shows tightly clustered odds near 30 percent for leading contenders, including HRPP nominees Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu and Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko alongside independents such as Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale, reflecting vote fragmentation in a first-past-the-post system without a dominant frontrunner. Recent candidate confirmations and the September 4 withdrawal deadline have kept probabilities balanced, while the absence of public polling data leaves assessments reliant on historical party performance and local dynamics. Clear separation could emerge from last-minute endorsements, turnout patterns among key voting blocs, or official results from the Electoral Commission.

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.

If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Volume
$5,807
End Date
Sep 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Falealili 1 By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale" at 33%, followed by "Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Falealili 1 By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Falealili 1 By-Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Falealili 1 By-Election Winner" is "Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Falealili 1 By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.