**Official NWS data shows Chicago O’Hare reached a daily maximum of exactly 84°F on August 26, 2026, at 2:05 PM CDT.** This single verified observation—3°F above the 1991–2020 normal of 81°F, with a minimum of 70°F and no precipitation—produced near-certain market pricing at 84–85°F (100%). Late-summer conditions featured moderate southwesterly flow shifting to northwest winds, clear to partly cloudy skies, and relative humidity dropping to 46% during peak heating, consistent with typical seasonal climatology rather than any anomalous heat wave. Traders priced the outcome at essentially 100% because the authoritative station reading left virtually no room for alternative interpretations. The only realistic challenges would be an official data revision (extremely rare for NWS daily summaries) or a market rule specifying a different station or time window, neither of which appears likely given the unambiguous report.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 26?
84-85°F 100.0%
75°F or below <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$25,408 Vol.
$25,408 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
75°F or below
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
Yes
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94°F or higher
No
84-85°F 100.0%
75°F or below <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$25,408 Vol.
$25,408 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
75°F or below
$238 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$3,230 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$2,977 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$3,009 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$4,783 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$4,740 Vol.
Yes
86-87°F
$3,008 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$1,056 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$1,396 Vol.
No
92-93°F
$583 Vol.
No
94°F or higher
$388 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official NWS data shows Chicago O’Hare reached a daily maximum of exactly 84°F on August 26, 2026, at 2:05 PM CDT.** This single verified observation—3°F above the 1991–2020 normal of 81°F, with a minimum of 70°F and no precipitation—produced near-certain market pricing at 84–85°F (100%).
Late-summer conditions featured moderate southwesterly flow shifting to northwest winds, clear to partly cloudy skies, and relative humidity dropping to 46% during peak heating, consistent with typical seasonal climatology rather than any anomalous heat wave. Traders priced the outcome at essentially 100% because the authoritative station reading left virtually no room for alternative interpretations.
The only realistic challenges would be an official data revision (extremely rare for NWS daily summaries) or a market rule specifying a different station or time window, neither of which appears likely given the unambiguous report.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$25,408End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official NWS data shows Chicago O’Hare reached a daily maximum of exactly 84°F on August 26, 2026, at 2:05 PM CDT.** This single verified observation—3°F above the 1991–2020 normal of 81°F, with a minimum of 70°F and no precipitation—produced near-certain market pricing at 84–85°F (100%).
Late-summer conditions featured moderate southwesterly flow shifting to northwest winds, clear to partly cloudy skies, and relative humidity dropping to 46% during peak heating, consistent with typical seasonal climatology rather than any anomalous heat wave. Traders priced the outcome at essentially 100% because the authoritative station reading left virtually no room for alternative interpretations.
The only realistic challenges would be an official data revision (extremely rare for NWS daily summaries) or a market rule specifying a different station or time window, neither of which appears likely given the unambiguous report.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,408End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Official NWS data shows Chicago O’Hare reached a daily maximum of exactly 84°F on August 26, 2026, at 2:05 PM CDT.** This single verified observation—3°F above the 1991–2020 normal of 81°F, with a minimum of 70°F and no precipitation—produced near-certain market pricing at 84–85°F (100%). Late-summer conditions featured moderate southwesterly flow shifting to northwest winds, clear to partly cloudy skies, and relative humidity dropping to 46% during peak heating, consistent with typical seasonal climatology rather than any anomalous heat wave. Traders priced the outcome at essentially 100% because the authoritative station reading left virtually no room for alternative interpretations. The only realistic challenges would be an official data revision (extremely rare for NWS daily summaries) or a market rule specifying a different station or time window, neither of which appears likely given the unambiguous report.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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