Recent polls show Likud projected between 19 and 26 seats amid volatility from the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, with trader odds clustered tightly around the 20-29 range. The late-August launch of Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, polling 5-8 seats, has split right-wing support and pushed some allies like Religious Zionism near or below the 3.25% threshold, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party remains competitive for the largest share. Netanyahu’s coalition continues to fall short of 61 seats in most surveys due to limited unification among partners and undecided voters near 11%. Further fragmentation, turnout shifts among ultra-Orthodox or Arab blocs, or security-related campaign developments could widen or narrow Likud’s range before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20-24 36%
25-29 34%
<20 17.4%
30-34 15%
$113,540 Vol.
$113,540 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
17%
20-24
36%
25-29
34%
30-34
15%
35+
3%
20-24 36%
25-29 34%
<20 17.4%
30-34 15%
$113,540 Vol.
$113,540 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<20
$39,467 Vol.
17%
20-24
$17,113 Vol.
36%
25-29
$26,183 Vol.
34%
30-34
$20,905 Vol.
15%
35+
$9,873 Vol.
3%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls show Likud projected between 19 and 26 seats amid volatility from the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, with trader odds clustered tightly around the 20-29 range. The late-August launch of Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, polling 5-8 seats, has split right-wing support and pushed some allies like Religious Zionism near or below the 3.25% threshold, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party remains competitive for the largest share. Netanyahu’s coalition continues to fall short of 61 seats in most surveys due to limited unification among partners and undecided voters near 11%. Further fragmentation, turnout shifts among ultra-Orthodox or Arab blocs, or security-related campaign developments could widen or narrow Likud’s range before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volume
$113,540End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls show Likud projected between 19 and 26 seats amid volatility from the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, with trader odds clustered tightly around the 20-29 range. The late-August launch of Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, polling 5-8 seats, has split right-wing support and pushed some allies like Religious Zionism near or below the 3.25% threshold, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party remains competitive for the largest share. Netanyahu’s coalition continues to fall short of 61 seats in most surveys due to limited unification among partners and undecided voters near 11%. Further fragmentation, turnout shifts among ultra-Orthodox or Arab blocs, or security-related campaign developments could widen or narrow Likud’s range before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$113,540End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Likud projected between 19 and 26 seats amid volatility from the October 27, 2026, Knesset election, with trader odds clustered tightly around the 20-29 range. The late-August launch of Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, polling 5-8 seats, has split right-wing support and pushed some allies like Religious Zionism near or below the 3.25% threshold, while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party remains competitive for the largest share. Netanyahu’s coalition continues to fall short of 61 seats in most surveys due to limited unification among partners and undecided voters near 11%. Further fragmentation, turnout shifts among ultra-Orthodox or Arab blocs, or security-related campaign developments could widen or narrow Likud’s range before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions