Strong southerly winds and a cold frontal passage are the main drivers behind market-implied odds clustering on 6–8°C lows for Wellington on September 7. Official MetService guidance and ensemble models show a period of persistent southeast flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with widespread rain and high cloud that limits daytime heating and promotes modest overnight radiative cooling. Minimum temperatures are expected near dawn on the 8th, where small differences in wind speed, timing of clearing, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the reading by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 7–9°C, but the current setup favors the lower end of that range without reaching extremes that would push probabilities heavily toward 4°C or below. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 7?
6°C 88%
7°C 46%
5°C 25%
9°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
4°C or below
-
5°C
13%
6°C
88%
7°C
46%
8°C
47%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
6°C 88%
7°C 46%
5°C 25%
9°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
4°C or below
$69 Vol.
-
5°C
$346 Vol.
13%
6°C
$0 Vol.
88%
7°C
$0 Vol.
46%
8°C
$5 Vol.
47%
9°C
$319 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$78 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$181 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$57 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$145 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$20 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong southerly winds and a cold frontal passage are the main drivers behind market-implied odds clustering on 6–8°C lows for Wellington on September 7. Official MetService guidance and ensemble models show a period of persistent southeast flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with widespread rain and high cloud that limits daytime heating and promotes modest overnight radiative cooling. Minimum temperatures are expected near dawn on the 8th, where small differences in wind speed, timing of clearing, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the reading by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 7–9°C, but the current setup favors the lower end of that range without reaching extremes that would push probabilities heavily toward 4°C or below. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,221End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong southerly winds and a cold frontal passage are the main drivers behind market-implied odds clustering on 6–8°C lows for Wellington on September 7. Official MetService guidance and ensemble models show a period of persistent southeast flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with widespread rain and high cloud that limits daytime heating and promotes modest overnight radiative cooling. Minimum temperatures are expected near dawn on the 8th, where small differences in wind speed, timing of clearing, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the reading by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 7–9°C, but the current setup favors the lower end of that range without reaching extremes that would push probabilities heavily toward 4°C or below. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,221End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong southerly winds and a cold frontal passage are the main drivers behind market-implied odds clustering on 6–8°C lows for Wellington on September 7. Official MetService guidance and ensemble models show a period of persistent southeast flow advecting cooler maritime air, combined with widespread rain and high cloud that limits daytime heating and promotes modest overnight radiative cooling. Minimum temperatures are expected near dawn on the 8th, where small differences in wind speed, timing of clearing, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the reading by 1–2°C. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows near 7–9°C, but the current setup favors the lower end of that range without reaching extremes that would push probabilities heavily toward 4°C or below. Updated model runs and MetService briefings tomorrow morning remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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