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Elections·Global Elections

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

icon for New Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Elections·Global Elections

New Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Lee Shu-chuan 81%

Su Chiao-hui 19%

Huang Kuo-chang 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

Lee Shu-chuan 81%

Su Chiao-hui 19%

Huang Kuo-chang 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Lee Shu-chuan

Lee Shu-chuan

$1,995 Vol.

81%

icon for Su Chiao-hui

Su Chiao-hui

$3,537 Vol.

19%

icon for Huang Kuo-chang

Huang Kuo-chang

$977 Vol.

1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Lee Shu-chuan holds an 81% implied probability in the New Taipei mayoral market due to his April 2026 victory in the KMT-TPP joint primary, which consolidated opposition support after Huang Kuo-chang suspended his bid and pledged coordination. This alliance provides organizational breadth and resources ahead of the November 28, 2026, election for the open seat vacated by term-limited incumbent Hou Yu-ih. Su Chiao-hui, the DPP nominee, stands at 19% amid a recent Era poll showing her at 37.8% to Lee’s 32.2%, though earlier surveys favored Lee and market pricing has remained stable. Huang Kuo-chang’s contract trades near 1%, reflecting his withdrawal. Candidate registration opens August 31, with local issues and turnout among swing voters likely to influence the outcome.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$6,509
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:27 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Lee Shu-chuan holds an 81% implied probability in the New Taipei mayoral market due to his April 2026 victory in the KMT-TPP joint primary, which consolidated opposition support after Huang Kuo-chang suspended his bid and pledged coordination. This alliance provides organizational breadth and resources ahead of the November 28, 2026, election for the open seat vacated by term-limited incumbent Hou Yu-ih. Su Chiao-hui, the DPP nominee, stands at 19% amid a recent Era poll showing her at 37.8% to Lee’s 32.2%, though earlier surveys favored Lee and market pricing has remained stable. Huang Kuo-chang’s contract trades near 1%, reflecting his withdrawal. Candidate registration opens August 31, with local issues and turnout among swing voters likely to influence the outcome.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$6,509
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 8:27 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of New Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"New Taipei Mayor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lee Shu-chuan" at 81%, followed by "Su Chiao-hui" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"New Taipei Mayor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "New Taipei Mayor Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "New Taipei Mayor Election Winner" is "Lee Shu-chuan" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Su Chiao-hui" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "New Taipei Mayor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.