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Elections·Global Elections

Next Premier of Quebec

icon for Next Premier of Quebec
Elections·Global Elections

Next Premier of Quebec

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 66%

Christine Fréchette 24.9%

Charles Milliard 5%

Sol Zanetti <1%

Polymarket

$264,046 Vol.

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon 66%

Christine Fréchette 24.9%

Charles Milliard 5%

Sol Zanetti <1%

Polymarket

$264,046 Vol.

icon for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon

$19,618 Vol.

66%

icon for Christine Fréchette

Christine Fréchette

$28,728 Vol.

25%

icon for Charles Milliard

Charles Milliard

$16,926 Vol.

5%

icon for Sol Zanetti

Sol Zanetti

$52,521 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bernard Drainville

Bernard Drainville

$60,816 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ruba Ghazal

Ruba Ghazal

$36,537 Vol.

<1%

icon for Éric Duhaime

Éric Duhaime

$48,900 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the market at 65.5% as Parti Québécois leader heading into the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, where his party holds a narrow edge in most recent polling aggregates over the governing Coalition Avenir Québec. Christine Fréchette, sworn in as premier in April after winning the CAQ leadership race, trades at 24.8% amid efforts to stabilize her party’s standing following François Legault’s resignation and amid a tightening race influenced by U.S. trade tensions. Charles Milliard of the Quebec Liberal Party sits at 5.0%, reflecting limited francophone support outside Montreal despite strength among anglophone and allophone voters. Recent campaign developments, including the writ drop on August 27 and shifting voter intentions in Synopsis and Léger surveys, highlight the PQ’s polling resilience alongside CAQ gains among older and female voters that could alter seat projections. Market pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics ahead of a fragmented outcome.

The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$264,046
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the market at 65.5% as Parti Québécois leader heading into the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election, where his party holds a narrow edge in most recent polling aggregates over the governing Coalition Avenir Québec. Christine Fréchette, sworn in as premier in April after winning the CAQ leadership race, trades at 24.8% amid efforts to stabilize her party’s standing following François Legault’s resignation and amid a tightening race influenced by U.S. trade tensions. Charles Milliard of the Quebec Liberal Party sits at 5.0%, reflecting limited francophone support outside Montreal despite strength among anglophone and allophone voters. Recent campaign developments, including the writ drop on August 27 and shifting voter intentions in Synopsis and Léger surveys, highlight the PQ’s polling resilience alongside CAQ gains among older and female voters that could alter seat projections. Market pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these dynamics ahead of a fragmented outcome.

The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$264,046
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

icon for Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

65%
icon for Will the PQ win 50-54 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

Will the PQ win 50-54 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

30%
icon for Will the PLQ win fewer than 28 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

Will the PLQ win fewer than 28 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?

34%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Premier of Quebec" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Paul St-Pierre Plamondon" at 66%, followed by "Christine Fréchette" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Premier of Quebec" has generated $264K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Premier of Quebec," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Premier of Quebec" is "Paul St-Pierre Plamondon" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Christine Fréchette" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Premier of Quebec" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.