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Politics·Pedro Sanchez

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Politics·Pedro Sanchez

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo 80%

Pedro Sánchez 13.8%

Santiago Abascal 4.0%

Isabel Díaz Ayuso 2.7%

Polymarket

$120,937 Vol.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo 80%

Pedro Sánchez 13.8%

Santiago Abascal 4.0%

Isabel Díaz Ayuso 2.7%

Polymarket

$120,937 Vol.

icon for Alberto Núñez Feijóo

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

$28,625 Vol.

80%

icon for Pedro Sánchez

Pedro Sánchez

$20,028 Vol.

14%

icon for Santiago Abascal

Santiago Abascal

$12,402 Vol.

4%

icon for Isabel Díaz Ayuso

Isabel Díaz Ayuso

$6,920 Vol.

3%

icon for Aitor Esteban

Aitor Esteban

$4,181 Vol.

<1%

icon for Óscar Puente

Óscar Puente

$2,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Cuerpo

Carlos Cuerpo

$3,162 Vol.

<1%

icon for Miguel Tellado

Miguel Tellado

$4,673 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ester Muñoz

Ester Muñoz

$5,271 Vol.

<1%

icon for María Jesús Montero

María Jesús Montero

$4,723 Vol.

<1%

icon for Cuca Gamarra

Cuca Gamarra

$4,786 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carles Puigdemont

Carles Puigdemont

$6,560 Vol.

<1%

icon for Yolanda Díaz

Yolanda Díaz

$4,211 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ernest Urtasun

Ernest Urtasun

$4,188 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pepa Millán

Pepa Millán

$4,191 Vol.

<1%

icon for Borja Sémper

Borja Sémper

$4,045 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads the market at 79.5% as leader of the opposition Partido Popular, which tops recent polling aggregates and holds a projected path to the largest seat bloc ahead of Spain’s next general election due no later than August 2027. Sánchez’s minority PSOE government has operated without stable parliamentary support since losing Junts backing, compounded by ongoing corruption investigations and convictions tied to party figures, recent migration pressures in Ceuta, and repeated regional defeats that have bolstered PP-Vox regional coalitions. Traders price Sánchez at 13.8% and lower figures for alternatives like Abascal or Ayuso because surveys indicate the PP-led right holds the clearest route to forming the next administration, though coalition arithmetic and any late budget or confidence vote dynamics could still shift positioning before dissolution.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$120,937
End Date
Mar 31, 2028
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads the market at 79.5% as leader of the opposition Partido Popular, which tops recent polling aggregates and holds a projected path to the largest seat bloc ahead of Spain’s next general election due no later than August 2027. Sánchez’s minority PSOE government has operated without stable parliamentary support since losing Junts backing, compounded by ongoing corruption investigations and convictions tied to party figures, recent migration pressures in Ceuta, and repeated regional defeats that have bolstered PP-Vox regional coalitions. Traders price Sánchez at 13.8% and lower figures for alternatives like Abascal or Ayuso because surveys indicate the PP-led right holds the clearest route to forming the next administration, though coalition arithmetic and any late budget or confidence vote dynamics could still shift positioning before dissolution.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$120,937
End Date
Mar 31, 2028
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Spain?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alberto Núñez Feijóo" at 80%, followed by "Pedro Sánchez" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 80¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Spain?" has generated $120.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Spain?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Spain?" is "Alberto Núñez Feijóo" at 80%, meaning the market assigns a 80% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pedro Sánchez" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Spain?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.