Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent Paraíba governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, leads the 2026 gubernatorial race with trader consensus reflecting his position. Late-August polls, including Quaest (38%) and Real Time Big Data (35%), show him ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB, 19-25%) and Efraim Filho (PL, 18-21%), supported by 61% government approval ratings and a broad coalition that includes PP, União, Republicanos, PSB, and others. His vice-governor selection and party convention formalization in early August reinforced organizational strength ahead of the October 4 first round. Lower probabilities for challengers align with their narrower bases and polling gaps, while minor candidates trail due to limited visibility and resources in the state’s 3.2-million voter electorate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLucas Ribeiro 65%
Cícero Lucena 16%
Efraim Filho 7%
Flávio Lúcio <1%
$56,539 Vol.
$56,539 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
65%
Cícero Lucena
16%
Efraim Filho
7%
Flávio Lúcio
1%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
1%
Nilvan Ferreira
<1%
Romero Rodrigues
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
<1%
Lucas Ribeiro 65%
Cícero Lucena 16%
Efraim Filho 7%
Flávio Lúcio <1%
$56,539 Vol.
$56,539 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
$16,567 Vol.
65%
Cícero Lucena
$17,854 Vol.
16%
Efraim Filho
$13,288 Vol.
7%
Flávio Lúcio
$836 Vol.
1%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
$2,375 Vol.
1%
Nilvan Ferreira
$833 Vol.
<1%
Romero Rodrigues
$1,464 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
$3,322 Vol.
<1%
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent Paraíba governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, leads the 2026 gubernatorial race with trader consensus reflecting his position. Late-August polls, including Quaest (38%) and Real Time Big Data (35%), show him ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB, 19-25%) and Efraim Filho (PL, 18-21%), supported by 61% government approval ratings and a broad coalition that includes PP, União, Republicanos, PSB, and others. His vice-governor selection and party convention formalization in early August reinforced organizational strength ahead of the October 4 first round. Lower probabilities for challengers align with their narrower bases and polling gaps, while minor candidates trail due to limited visibility and resources in the state’s 3.2-million voter electorate.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$56,539End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent Paraíba governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, leads the 2026 gubernatorial race with trader consensus reflecting his position. Late-August polls, including Quaest (38%) and Real Time Big Data (35%), show him ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB, 19-25%) and Efraim Filho (PL, 18-21%), supported by 61% government approval ratings and a broad coalition that includes PP, União, Republicanos, PSB, and others. His vice-governor selection and party convention formalization in early August reinforced organizational strength ahead of the October 4 first round. Lower probabilities for challengers align with their narrower bases and polling gaps, while minor candidates trail due to limited visibility and resources in the state’s 3.2-million voter electorate.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$56,539End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent Paraíba governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation, leads the 2026 gubernatorial race with trader consensus reflecting his position. Late-August polls, including Quaest (38%) and Real Time Big Data (35%), show him ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB, 19-25%) and Efraim Filho (PL, 18-21%), supported by 61% government approval ratings and a broad coalition that includes PP, União, Republicanos, PSB, and others. His vice-governor selection and party convention formalization in early August reinforced organizational strength ahead of the October 4 first round. Lower probabilities for challengers align with their narrower bases and polling gaps, while minor candidates trail due to limited visibility and resources in the state’s 3.2-million voter electorate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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